The Minnesota Vikings host the San Francisco 49ers, as we make our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Last week, Purdy suffered his first regular-season loss as an NFL quarterback. In the 19-17 defeat, Purdy completed just 44.4% of his passes for 125 yards, one touchdown, and his first interception of the season.
Purdy will be without Deebo Samuel tonight, and he could face more pressure with tackle Trent Williams listed as doubtful. But this is a solid matchup for Purdy, and we firmly expect him to bounce back from last week's performance.
Here are our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for the San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings Week 7 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for Week 7
- Br ock Purdy Over 19.5 pass completions (-110 via BetMGM) ???
- Brock Purdy Over 235.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ???
- Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-105 via bet365) ???
Brock Purdy player props
Purdy has only completed 20 or more passes twice this season. A lot of that is because McCaffrey has as many rushing attempts as Purdy has completions. Though McCaffrey is trending toward playing tonight, we're going to take a bit of a chance with this prop.
McCaffrey has run the ball at least 18 times in every game this season. However, we could see him get fewer touches tonight if the 49ers are concerned about his health for the remainder of the season. That opens the door for Purdy.
Even if McCaffrey is at 100%, we like Kyle Shanahan to give his young quarterback more opportunities tonight. Purdy is coming off the worst game of his career, and the Vikings are the perfect defense to face to gain your confidence back. Purdy has completed at least 17 passes in five of his six games this season. The Vikings are allowing 25.3 completions per game.
The Vikings are allowing 241 passing yards per game, despite some very favorable matchups this season. Last week, they allowed just 113 passing yards, in large part because Justin Fields was injured and Tyson Bagent had to make his NFL debut in relief.
Efficient quarterbacks feast against the Vikings' secondary. Patrick Mahomes threw for 281 yards, while Justin Herbert threw for 405 yards.
The Vikings have given up massive games to running backs. But with McCaffrey coming off an injury, we expect the 49ers to throw a little more than they usually do. And even if they don't, Purdy cleared this number completing just 17 passes earlier this season.
Finding a third prop for Purdy isn' t easy, so we're taking this because of the price. Purdy has thrown fewer than two touchdown passes in two of his last three games. On the season, he has three games with two or more touchdown passes and three with one or fewer.
The amount of points the 49ers score doesn't directly impact Purdy's touchdown output. Earlier this season against the Rams, the 49ers scored 30 points and Purdy threw zero touchdowns. But the Vikings are one of the worst defenses in the league when it comes to allowing passing touchdowns. They're giving up 1.5 per week which is tied for 22nd in the league.
Considering this is a good matchup and Purdy has just as much of a chance to go Over this number as Under it, we like getting this price near +100. To take the Under is -120 or worse at all of our best sports betting apps, which is simply too expensive.
Brock Purdy player prop picks made 10/23/2023 at 9:33 a .m. ET.
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