The Milwaukee Brewers (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 80-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 70-78 ATS.

Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM

Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 57 away games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 42 of his last 88 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
• Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
• Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
• Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 69 of their last 130 games (+12.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 14% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+15.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.25 Units / 13% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 63-86 against the Run Line (-30.75 Units / -17.05% ROI).

• 80-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -8.05% ROI
• 73-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.4% ROI
• 69-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -6.15% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-78 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -7.83% ROI).

• 58-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.75 Units / -11.1% ROI
• 71-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -6.74% ROI
• 74-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -2.81% ROI

Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (110/346) against Eric Lauer this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (196/594) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (6/49) against Eric Lauer on low breaking pitches this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .270 (31-for-115) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.

Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .739 (105 Total Bases / 142 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .431 — 0 Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of 1.149 (161 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .752 — 0 Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .402 (82 Total Bases / 204 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .263 — first Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed an OPS of .977 (356 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .709 — 0 Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
Read Full Article