The Milwaukee Brewers (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on Thursday, September 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Brewers are 90-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 83-75 ATS.
Brewers vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 7-9, 4.54 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 11-11, 4.25 ERA
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Brewers vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
$1500 First Bet Offer
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+34.80 Units / 193% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+19.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+17.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+12.35 Units / 112% ROI)
- Billy Cook has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.30 Units / 226% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+9.25 Units / 71% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 154 games (+10.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 90 of their last 158 games (+9.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 87 of their last 158 games (+8.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 87 of their last 158 games (+6.12 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games at home (+13.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 119 games (+6.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+5.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-79 against the Run Line (-4.9 Units / -2.37% ROI).
- 90-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.95 Units / 4.92% ROI
- 81-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.2 Units / 4.74% ROI
- 67-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.25 Units / -12.73% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 83-75 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 0.66% ROI).
- 74-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.4 Units / -6.21% ROI
- 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -6.37% ROI
- 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -1.92% ROI
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) |
0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) |
0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) |
0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) |
0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| William Contreras (MIL) |
0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) |
0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) |
0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) |
0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) |
0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) |
0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) |
0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) |
0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) |
0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) |
5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) |
4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Aaron Civale has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to September 3rd — Bryan Woo has the longest active streak at 7.
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .485 (114 Total Bases / 235 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .370 — third Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale this season is 384.5 feet — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 397.8
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .561 (133 Total Bases / 237 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .925 (265 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (74-for-237) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .364 (264 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.