Brewers-Padres prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, April 15

The Milwaukee Brewers look to make it three in a row against the San Diego Padres as the two teams continue their four-game set from Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Freddy Peralta (2-0, 0.75 ERA) will look to continue his strong start for the Brew Crew, while Seth Lugo (2-0, 1.38 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego.

The Padres still enter Saturday's game as -130 favorites on the moneyline at Draftkings Sportsbook, while the Brewers are slight +110 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.

Brewers vs. Padres picks: Saturday, April 15th

Brewers

Day to day: Jesse Winker (illness)
Out: SP Brandon Woodruff (right shoulder inflammation), SP/RP Aaron Ashby (left shoulder), SP/RP Adrian Houser (right groin), OF Tyrone Taylor (right elbow), SS Luis Urias (left hamstring)

Padres

Out: RP Drew Pomeranz (flexor tendon surgery), SP Joe Musgrove (fractured big toe), OF David Dahl (right quad strain), RP Robert Suarez (right elbow inflammation), OF Adam Engel (left hamstring strain)

Freddy Peralta vs. Seth Lugo

Amid Corbin Burnes' early-season struggles and Brandon Woodruff's shoulder issues, Peralta has stepped up as the ace of Milwaukee's staff. He blanked the New York Mets while striking out seven in his first start, then threw six innings of one-run ball against the St. Louis Cardinals last Sunday. The command will always be a bit spotty, but he boasts elite strikeout upside with the ability to go deep into games.

Despite all the stars in San Diego's rotation, Lugo has been easily the Padres' best starter this year. He dominated the Rockies over seven innings to start the season, then managed to navigate six innings against the Braves in Atlanta while only allowing one run (albeit while walking four). The righty flashed major potential as a multi-inning relief option in New York and is now making the most of his chance as a starter.

The Brewers pounded San Diego for 11 runs in a win on Friday, but runs should be at a premium on Saturday afternoon. Peralta and Lugo have combined to allow just three runs all year, while both of these lineups have serious potential but also a bad habit of going quiet for several innings at a time. Plus, Devin Williams and Josh Hader are waiting in the wings in the late innings.

Pick: Under 8

It's just hard to see the Padres offense scoring enough off of Peralta given what we've seen so far this year. Look for Milwaukee's go-go attack full of young athletes to create just enough havoc to scratch across a run or two that makes the difference. They're the smart pick, especially with favorable odds that run counter to how these two teams have actually played so far in 2023.

Pick: Brewers

  
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