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The Atlanta Braves look to earn a split of their four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball in a matchup that has massive implications for their NL East division title hopes.
In our Braves vs. Phillies prediction, we're expecting Atlanta to give a boost to its World Series odds as a +120 moneyline underdog at our best MLB betting sites.
First pitch for Sunday's game from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN) with MLB MVP odds contender Marcell Ozuna leading the charge for the Braves.
Braves vs. Phillies prediction
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
The Phillies cashed as -145 moneyline favorites yesterday in a game in which they had ace Zack Wheeler on the mound. However, I'm backing th e Braves today, who are desperate for a victory as a result.
Spencer Schwellenbach will look to extend Atlanta's streak of its starting pitchers allowing three or fewer earned runs. The current streak of 20 is the franchise's longest streak since 1893, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just 3-5 in Aaron Nola's last eight starts, with two of the wins in that span coming by one run.
Atlanta has as high as a 46.51% implied probability to win based on Caesars' +115 odds, so the best value for Braves backers is at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would return a $12 profit.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%
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Braves vs. Phillies player props
MLB picks made Sunday at 6:53 a.m. ET.
This wager is a contrarian play, considering Schwellenbach has recorded seven-plus strikeouts in seven consecutive starts.
It's a three-star play, with Schwellenbach having a 11.4 K/9 rate in home starts and a 10.0 K/9 rate on the road. Plus, the familiarity with Schwellenbach's arsenal – having faced him twice since the start of July – should help Phillies hitters with a better approach at the plate.
Caesars' -127 odds for the Under carry a 55.95% implied probability, so I'm rushing to the betting window for the 50/50 even money odds at BetMGM, which pay a $10 profit on a $10 bet.
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%
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Jorge Soler is at his worst against the Phillies, and his eighth-inning single yesterday is his only hit against them in 30 at-bats this season.
Per Baseball Reference's Jessica Brand, Soler's 29 hitless at-bat start against Philadelphia was seven away from setting the all-time record of most at-bats by a player without a hit against a team in a single season.
Soler is 6-for-21 in his career against Nola, but considering DraftKings has the Under on Soler's 1.5 total bases juiced to -170, even oddsmakers do not believe in his ability to produce more than a single in tonight's game.
Thus, the +165 odds for Soler to go hitless are a tremendous value, especially considering it is as low as +152 at Caesars. A $10 winning wager would pay a $16.50 profit.
Best odds: +165 via bet365 | Implied probability: 37.74%
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Phillies vs. Braves odds & game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 1
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pa.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Phillies (-142 via DraftKings)
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