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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have split the first two games of their four-game series. They play their penultimate head-to-head matchup of the season on Saturday night, which will go a long way in determining the NL East division winner.
The Braves are looking to even the head-to-head season series with the Phillies, as Philadelphia has won six of the first 11 matchups. My Braves vs. Phillies predictions analyze what the NL East standings will look like at the end of the day (the Phillies hold a five-game lead), and I also make the case for the best pitcher and batter props.
First pitch for this highly anticipated NL East showdown is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park
Braves vs. Phillies prediction
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Braves starting pitchers h aven't allowed more than three earned runs in 19 consecutive games. That's the franchise's longest streak since 1893, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
However, based on each of tonight's starting pitcher's past performances against their rivals, I give the edge to Philadelphia behind Zack Wheeler over Max Fried.
Wheeler has allowed a .244/.289/.422 slash line in 197 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters. Meanwhile, the Phillies have tagged Fried for a .296/.356/.496 slash line, and 35% of their hits during that span have gone for extra bases.
Philadelphia is getting over a 60% implied probability to win based on FanDuel's -152 odds. So the best value for Phillies backers is at Caesars, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $16.90.
Best odds: -145 via Caesars | Implied probability: 59.18%
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Braves vs. Phillies player props
MLB picks made Saturday at 7:02 a.m. ET.
Wheeler is making his second start in the last two weeks on four days of rest against Atlanta. The last one was his third outing with eight-plus strikeouts in five August starts. Wheeler has thrived on short rest throughout his career, posting a .671 winning percentage and 1.109 WHIP.
The hurler is also averaging 9.3 K/9 on four days of rest, and his 37% CSW percentage against the Braves in his last start is encouraging too.
I'm only making this play because of the plus-money odds from one of our best sportsbooks. But the Braves have struck out at the 11th-highest rate against right-handed pitchers this month. That's why Wheeler's implied probability is as high as 48.08% (+108) at Caesars to record eight-plus strikeouts.
A $10 winning wager throug h FanDuel would return $12 in profit.
Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.45%
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No Phillies player has enjoyed more consistent success against Fried than Trea Turner. He's slashing .351/.390/.649 in 37 at-bats, with five of his 13 hits going for extra bases.
Even if Turner doesn't plate himself with a home run (he's logged three career dingers against Fried), three other Phillies behind him in the batting order (Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto) are posting an .868 OPS or better against the southpaw (minimum 15 at-bats).
This is a better way to back Turner to score a run than with his hits/runs/RBIs prop, which comes with much more steep -145 odds through bet365. With Caesars' -113 odds for Turner to score a run, a $10 winning wager pays out $18.85.
Best odds: -113 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.05%
Phillies vs. Braves odds & game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 31
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pa.)
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: Phillies (-145 via Caesars)
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