The Atlanta Braves (-155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+125) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 92-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 72-73 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 99 games (+29.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 58 games (+20.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 79 of his last 137 games (+18.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+17.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+17.60 Units / 84% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 65 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 away games (+1.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+1.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 77-70 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.86% ROI).
- 92-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.55 Units / 5.39% ROI
- 72-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -1.08% ROI
- 67-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -7.48% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 72-73 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -2.33% ROI).
- 80-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 0.42% ROI
- 74-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.31% ROI
- 67-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -8.4% ROI
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (172 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (96/168) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.1 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (193 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
16 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 93rd Percentile.
Ranger Suarez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (20/153) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (131/693) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (88/141) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (238/420) against Ranger Suarez this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.