The Atlanta Braves (-150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+125) on Thursday, October 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Braves are 105-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 76-91 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 69.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 28 games (+21.60 Units / 37% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+18.55 Units / 61% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+14.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+13.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.10 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+17.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+13.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 49 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 156 games (+22.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 82 away games (+6.45 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 108 games (+4.45 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.34 Units / 93% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 110 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 62 games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.78 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 58 games (+8.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 94% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 82-83 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -3.44% ROI).

• 105-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 1.04% ROI
• 94-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +18.9 Units / 10.36% ROI
• 68-94 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.05 Units / -19.4% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 76-91 against the Run Line (-21.15 Units / -10.27% ROI).

• 94-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.32% ROI
• 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -5.78% ROI
• 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -2.55% ROI

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (635/1,644) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has struck out 41% (251/611) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 37% (281 SO in 763 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has 67 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 52% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (288/553) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (45/73) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (166/274) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.

  
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