The Atlanta Braves (+120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-145) on Saturday, August 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Braves are 74-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 66-69 ATS.
Braves vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 8-7, 3.50 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 12-6, 2.76 ERA
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 away games (+20.20 Units / 135% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+18.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+12.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+18.70 Units / 374% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 121 games (+30.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+12.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 45% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+11.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games at home (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 62-73 against the Run Line (-13.7 Units / -8.43% ROI).
- 74-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -8.38% ROI
- 51-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -34.8 Units / -23.64% ROI
- 79-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.65 Units / 15.1% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 66-69 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -3.54% ROI).
- 79-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -0.77% ROI
- 63-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -6.72% ROI
- 66-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -2.53% ROI
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Whit Merrifield (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Max Fried (ATL) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (218/376) against Max Fried this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (341/587) against Max Fried since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .477 (199 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .711 — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .284 (83 Total Bases / 292 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .413 — 100th Percentile.