The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Friday, July 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Braves are 51-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-48 ATS.

Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Schwellenbach 2-4, 5.02 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 2-4, 4.69 ERA

Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 78 games (+27.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 away games (+12.74 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games at home (+11.75 Units / 60% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 64 games (+4.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-50 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -7.06% ROI).

• 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.68% ROI
• 32-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.65 Units / -27.59% ROI
• 55-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.55 Units / 19.11% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-48 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.17% ROI).

• 49-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -5.89% ROI
• 52-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.2 Units / 4.97% ROI
• 43-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -13.73% ROI

Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Spencer Schwellenbach has a strike rate of 71% (428/603) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (100/274) against Spencer Schwellenbach this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 78% (93/120) of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Schwellenbach has allowed three-ball counts to 10% of batters they faced (17/162 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .332 (79-for-238) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.

Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (61 Total Bases / 91 ABs) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 0 Percentile.

Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .396 against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (29/208) against Randy Vasquez this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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