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Did the Atlanta Braves really go to all that trouble clinching a postseason spot on the day after the final day of the regular season just to fall in two straight games to the San Diego Padres? Not if Max Fried has anything to say about it.
- The Padres shut out the Braves on Tuesday to move up the World Series odds, thanks to a masterful pitching performance by Michael King, who struck out 12 Atlanta hitters over seven innings
- The Braves will respond to the disappointing Game 1 defeat by sending an actual major-league pitcher to the mound at Petco Park, with Fried looking to keep his team's season alive
- Opposing Fried when first pitch is thrown at 8:38 p.m. ET will be Joe Musgrove, who was phenomenal during the second half of the season
- Will runs be at a premium when these two studs take the hill?
Our Braves vs. Padres prediction looks at whether Atlanta's talented left-hander can silen ce San Diego's bats and force a decisive Game 3.
Our Tigers vs. Astros prediction, Royals vs. Orioles prediction, and Mets vs. Brewers prediction have you covered for the rest of Wednesday's Wild Card Series action.
Braves vs. Padres predictions: Game 2
- Braves moneyline (+102 via FanDuel)
- Max Fried Over 4.5 strikeouts (-101 via Caesars)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Braves vs. Padres?
First pitch: 8:38 p.m. ET, Petco Park
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%
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Do the Braves have enough left in the tank to win even a single game against this powerhouse Padres team?
It's entirely possible that Wednesday's game will only further infuriate Arizona Diamondbacks fans who believe their team should be in the postseason – the New York Mets essentially gifted the Braves the win in the second contest of their doubleheader on Monday. However, I believe the Braves can pull off the upset and force Game 3.
Our best sports betting sites clearly aren't confident in the Padres on Wednesday, at least compared to their moneyline odds for Game 1. San Diego was trading as short as -180 on Tuesday, but its odds to win Game 2 are hovering around -120. A big reason for that is due to who will take the ball for the Braves.
Fried put together another terrific season, finishing with a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 174 1/3 innings. And when the Braves needed hi m most, he shined on Sept. 27 against the Kansas City Royals, going 8 2/3 innings of shutout ball, striking out nine and allowing only three hits. I think we'll see another heroic effort from the southpaw on Wednesday.
For their part, the Padres weren't particularly good against left-handed pitching this season. Their 96 wRC+ ranked in the lower half of the league, as did their .239 average and .380 slugging percentage. The only San Diego hitter who was especially good against southpaws was Jurickson Profar, while Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth all downright stunk.
The Braves' biggest issue may be to just string together enough hits to score some runs. Outside of that roller-coaster first game against the Mets on Monday (which finished 8-7), Atlanta has managed just 10 runs in its last five games.
However, with Fried on the mound, the Braves may need only two or thre e to cross the plate to win this one.
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It's all about Fried on Wednesday, and we're riding with the left-hander to go Over his strikeout total in Game 2.
Now, the only risk with this bet is that the Padres owned the lowest strikeout percentage against left-handers in all of baseball … by a lot. Their 17.2% K rate was more than 2% better than the second-lowest. However, I feel as though that's baked into both the line and the price for Fried to go Over it.
Fried's outs total is set at 17.5 and is juiced heavily to the Over – it's so short that we might see this line blast past the key number and go to 18.5.
If Fried goes six-plus innings, he's a good bet to get at least five strikeouts based on his 8.57 K/9. That equates to roughly 5.75 per six innings, which makes his strikeout projection of 5.68 look pretty spot-on.
Based on that projection, we're getting better than 32% positive expected value on this bet.
I would prefer to bet on Fried to go Over 17.5 outs if the odds weren't so outrageously short, as I think there's a world in which he strikes out four over six. However, I think this bet offers the best value.
Best odds: -101 via Caesars | Implied probability: 50.25%
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Braves vs. Padres odds & game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 2
- First pitch: 8:38 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park, San Diego
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Favorite: Padres (-118 via DraftKings)
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