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The first day of the MLB postseason is capped off with a showdown between what we can only assume is an exhausted Atlanta Braves team and the hungry home favorites, the San Diego Padres.
- The Padres enter this contest as the biggest favorites of any team on Tuesday's slate, with moneyline odds as short as -180 at some of our best sports betting sites
- Atlanta's starters played two full games on Monday after losing the first contest of the doubleheader with the New York Mets and needing a win to make the playoffs
- We don't even know who'll be the Braves' starting pitcher in Game 1, but it won't be any of Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, or Charlie Morton, and there's about a 0.1% chance it could be Max Fried on three days' rest
- First pitch is set for 8:38 p.m. ET from Petco Park, and this one could be a bloodbath
Will the Braves have any energy – o r active pitchers – after punching their ticket on Monday and traveling across the country immediately after?
Be sure to also check out our Tigers vs. Astros prediction, Royals vs. Orioles prediction, and Mets vs. Brewers prediction for the rest of Tuesday's Wild Card Series action.
Braves vs. Padres predictions: Game 1
- Padres moneyline (-166 via FanDuel)
- Michael King Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 via bet365)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Braves vs. Padres?
First pitch: 8:38 p.m. ET, Petco Park
Best odds: -166 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 62.41%
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The Braves have been put in a very unfortunate position for their Wild Card Series.
Needing a win to make it this far, Atlanta was forced to play all of its starters for both games of Monday's doubleheader. Following that emotional victory – and hopefully subdued celebration – the Braves took the 4 1/2-hour flight to San Diego.
Therefore, it makes sense that the Padres are the biggest favorites of any team on Tuesday's four-game schedule. It's entirely possible the 62.41% implied probability associated with these -166 odds isn't even a fair representation of how big of a favorite they should be.
Due to a combination of injuries and poor play, Braves batters finished 18th in fWAR this season, while the Padres ranked seventh even with Fernando Tatis Jr. playing just more than 100 games.
I'm a bit biased because I bet on the Padres to win the World Ser ies in August, but I think they're the most complete team entering the playoffs.
San Diego owns a terrific lineup, a ferocious rotation featuring Game 1 starter Michael King, Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish, and one of the best bullpens in baseball.
I expect the Padres to utilize all those advantages en route to a comfortable victory on Tuesday.
See the rest of our MLB picks.
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Now, no one is going to suggest the Padres outright won the Juan Soto trade, but they didn't do too badly for themselves by getting King in return.
Following a shaky start to the season, King settled in and finished as one of the very best pitchers in the N L. He managed an elite 10.42 strikeouts per nine innings and recorded a 2.95 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Additionally, King was an absolute menace during the second half of the season. He managed a 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (vs. 3.41 and 1.23 in the first half).
King is riding a massive wave of momentum into this start following four straight strong performances, two of which came against World Series odds contenders, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros.
On Tuesday, King is projected for 6.76 strikeouts, well above the six he needs to clear this total. The Over has moved from -106 to -131 at Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – but bet365 is still offering a tasty -110 price tag.
We're getting nearly better than 25% positive expected value on this bet based on that projection. Smash this four-star pick before th e price shortens.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Braves vs. Padres odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
- First pitch: 8:38 p.m. ET
- Where: Petco Park, San Diego
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Padres (-166 via FanDuel)
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