The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+100) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Braves are 54-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 49-52 ATS.

Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 13-3, 2.71 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 7-3, 3.56 ERA

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+17.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 32 games (+17.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+14.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.55 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+31.00 Units / 172% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 52% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 30 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+12.10 Units / 74% ROI)
• Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+9.90 Units / 89% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 86 games (+29.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 away games (+13.74 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.20 Units / 15% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 58 of their last 92 games (+17.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 53 games (+8.15 Units / 11% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 44-56 against the Run Line (-12.85 Units / -11.07% ROI).

• 54-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.55 Units / -10.02% ROI
• 35-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.4 Units / -27.81% ROI
• 60-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.35 Units / 19.26% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 49-52 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -4.49% ROI).

• 53-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 1.28% ROI
• 53-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 5% ROI
• 43-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -13.49% ROI

Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

20 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .208 (51 Total Bases / 245 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .353 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .151 (37-for-245) against Chris Sale’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 100th Percentile.

Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 35% (56 SO in 162 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (27/166) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (59/342) against Luis Severino this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .191 (30-for-157) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 90th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (180/892) against Luis Severino this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
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