The Atlanta Braves (-125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Braves are 51-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 46-47 ATS.
Braves vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 7-4, 3.17 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 3-6, 4.17 ERA
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Braves vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 77 games (+26.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 away games (+11.54 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 30% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 42-49 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -6.17% ROI).
- 51-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -7.96% ROI
- 32-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.6 Units / -26.83% ROI
- 54-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.55 Units / 18.34% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 46-47 against the Run Line (-7.75 Units / -6.24% ROI).
- 46-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -3.97% ROI
- 49-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 3.54% ROI
- 41-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -12.26% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried has allowed a slugging percentage of just .180 (24 Total Bases / 133 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (70/105) against Max Fried in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (201/467) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Max Fried has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (201/467) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a batting average of just .184 vs right-handed batters (seventh best)– 90th Percentile and .308 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .308 (64-for-208) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — fourth Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OBP of just .235 (221 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 92nd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .184 (38-for-207) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 90th Percentile.