The Bowling Green Falcons and Minnesota Golden Gophers start a post-Christmas college football tripleheader on Tuesday, and we offer our best Bowling Green vs. Minnesota prediction based on the best college football odds at our best sportsbooks.
Bowling Green's season took an inspiring turn after an initially rocky start, marked by a 1-3 record. Their pivotal win against Georgia Tech, a formidable ACC contender, served as a turning point, sparking a surge of confidence that propelled the team forward. Riding on this newfound momentum, the squad crafted an impressive comeback, clinching victories in five out of its final six games while securing coveted bowl-eligibility status.
While their remarkable streak was marred only by a narrow one-point loss to the undefeated MAC powerhouse Toledo, it solidified Bowling Green's resurgence. That impressive finish guarantees the team its first winning season since a MAC championship campaign in 2015, representing a significant milestone and a testament to the team's resilience and determination throughout the season.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is the only five-win team (5-7) playing in a bowl game this season, as the Golden Gophers earned a bowl bid because there were not enough eligible six-win teams. Per the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Minnesota earned a bowl bid over all other five-win teams because it had the best Academic Progress Rate (APR).
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Bowling Green vs. Minnesota prediction and our college football picks for Tuesday's Quick Lane Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota prediction: Quick Lane Bowl
It might be argued that Minnesota doesn't merit a bowl bid considering its subpar record, but the reality remains that Golden Gophers' head coach P.J. Fleck possesses a knack for winning bowl games, boasting a 4-0 record in bowls during his tenure. One of those triumphs took place in this very bowl at Ford Field back in 2018, providing substantial motivation for the Golden Gophers in this upcoming matchup, particularly after their 14-10 upset loss to Bowling Green at home in 2021.
Like many teams this bowl season, the Golden Gophers were hit hard by the transfer portal, as both their starting quarterback (Athan Kaliakmanis) and backup quarterback (Drew Viotto) are transferring. That leaves the quarterbacking duties to Cole Kramer, whose only pass attempt this season resulted in an interception.
However, the team will likely not have to rely on his arm much, as Bowling Green's rush defense ranks outside the top 100 in Line Yards, Rush Success, and Stuff Rate. And in a g ame that projects to be close, special teams could make all the difference, and Minnesota has a decisive edge there, finishing the regular season ranked 19th compared to Bowling Green's 125th ranking in special teams SP+.
Bowling Green has had an opportunistic defense all season and is the only team that ranks in the top six in the country in both fumble recoveries (11) and interceptions (16). However, one of the Falcons cornerbacks with four interceptions on the season, Jalen Huskey, is in the transfer portal.
In addition, Minnesota was tied for 36th in turnover margin (+3) on the season, and there should be few opportunities for the Falcons to force turnovers if the Golden Gophers resort to a ground-and-pound game plan. However, this is only a three-star play at the best sportsbooks, as Minnesota has lost and failed to cover the spread in its last four games.
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Bowling Green vs. Minnesota best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| -110 | -102 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
As Minnesota backers, we have our choice of three top college football betting sites offering the lowest number (-3.5) at standard -110 juice. We would pass at any number at -4 or higher, so be sure to shop for the best possible number. We also would consider parlaying Minnesota's moneyline odds at the best sportsbooks (-176 at FanDuel is the best number) with other bowl games this weekend, considering MAC teams have lost nine of their last 10 appearances in the Quick Lane Bowl, including Bowling Green's 24-19 loss to New Mexico State last year.
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Bowling Green vs. Minnesota odds
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota odds analysis
All point spread line movement from the opening number has gone in Bowling Green's favor, as most of our top college football betting sites initially had the Golden Gophers as 5.5-point favorites. DraftKings spiked back up briefly to -4 after hitting a low of -3.5, but the line has remained at -3.5 since the beginning of the week. Fifty-nine percent of the early wagers are on Minnesota despite covering the spread in nine of its 12 games. Bowling Green has an 8-4 ATS record.
Our best sports betting apps are in unison, with an O/U of 39.5 points and standard -110 juice on either side of the total. FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars reached a low of 36.5 in early December, while DraftKings and bet365 never had their totals reach lower than 37 and 38, respectively. The betting splits are i n accordance with that spike in total, as 80% of the wagers have backed the Over.
Quick Lane Bowl game info
- When: Tuesday, Dec. 26 at 2:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
- Weather: Indoors
Bowling Green-Minnesota prediction made 12/23/2023 at 6:38 a.m. ET.
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