The Toronto Blue Jays (-125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+105) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Blue Jays are 59-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 48-57 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+14.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 41 away games (+14.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 41 away games (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 38 games at home (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 63 games (+21.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.25 Units / 42% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 103 games (+10.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 68 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 93 games (+3.50 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 26% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 48-57 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -10.59% ROI).
- 59-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -8.19% ROI
- 53-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 51-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -7.08% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 48-57 against the Run Line (-11.8 Units / -9.26% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.92% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.86% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -6.72% ROI
Jose Berrios: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Berrios has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (56 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .365 (38-for-104) against Jose Berrios on inside fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .258 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (27/148) against Jose Berrios on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has an ERA of 7.15 (50.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.68 — third Percentile.
Tyler Mahle: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 31% (27 SO in 86 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (16/132) against Tyler Mahle on fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (86/283) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (480/1,276) against Tyler Mahle in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.