The Toronto Blue Jays (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Blue Jays are 70-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-65 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today's Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the NA will win Sunday's matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today
We've highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 55 away games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+12.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 50 of his last 87 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games at home (+13.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games at home (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games at home (+10.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 89 games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+5.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 54-74 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -16.42% ROI).
- 70-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.1 Units / -11.02% ROI
- 64-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.32% ROI
- 61-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -7.24% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 63-65 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -6.33% ROI).
- 48-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -7.29% ROI
- 55-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -11.58% ROI
- 65-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 3.15% ROI
Thomas Stripling: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 374.4 feet – best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 398.2
Ross Stripling has walked 16 of 404 batters (4%) this season – tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 7% – 96th Percentile.
Ross Stripling has walked 6 of 170 left-handed batters (4%) this season – tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 8% – 95th Percentile.
Ross Stripling has allowed a slugging percentage of just .362 (68 Total Bases / 188 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season – best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .543 – 100th Percentile.
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (309/931) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season – tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 49% – second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (148/479) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season – lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 49% – 0 Percentile.
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 59% (369/620) in two strike counts this season – 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 66% – second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 40 of JT Brubaker's 275 elevated fastballs out of the zone (14%) this season – 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 28% – first Percentile.