Two clubs heading in opposite directions clash on Tuesday when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Philadelphia Phillies, and we're diving in with our Blue Jays vs. Phillies player props based on the best MLB odds.
The Toronto Blue Jays (16-19) have excelled in some areas just as much as they're cratered in others, and lately, that's resulted in plenty of losing. The Jays have dropped 10 of their last 14 games, and now they head to Citizens Bank Ballpark to face a white-hot Philadelphia Phillies team (25-11) that's won six straight. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET on Sportsnet.
The Blue Jays' starting pitching has been the team's strength. Most notably Jose Berrios, who's starting Tuesday and is among the contenders in the AL Cy Young odds. But the Jays keep plunging offensively while ranking 25th in scoring. The Phillies are surging and sit fourth.
Will the Blue Jays' bats keep awakening after scoring 14 runs over their last two games?
To accompany our MLB best bets for Tuesday, here are our best Blue Jays vs. Phillies player props and MLB picks (odds via our
best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Blue Jays vs. Phillies player props
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via Betway) ????
- Cristopher Sanchez Over 4.5 hits allowed (-152 via Betway) ????
- Jose Berrios Under 17.5 outs recorded (-105 via Betway) ???
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Blue Jays vs. Phillies expert picks
Watching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the plate has not been fun for much of the first month and change of the 2024 season. When the Blue Jays play at home, the Loonie dog counter is far more entertaining (it's perhaps also wildly unhealthy, but we don't think about that).
But there have been e ncouraging signs of life recently, including some of the laser-beam line drive power we've come to expect from Guerrero when he's at his best.
Vlad is currently riding an eight-game hitting streak, raising his OPS from a dumpster-level .643 on April 26 to .711 now. That run includes three multi-hit games and four extra-base hits (three doubles and a grand slam on Sunday against the Washington Nationals).
Now Guerrero and his warming bat will face a lefty in Cristopher Sanchez. Guerrero has been faring well against southpaws despite his overall issues this campaign while slashing .346/.469/.500.
A $10 wager on this prop at Betway's +110 odds would yield an $11 profit, and it has an implied probability of 47.6%.
Best odds: +110 via Betway
You'll have to swallow some heavier juice, but there's plenty of reason to feel confident about this play.
That starts with Sanchez clearing this total in four of his six outings thus far, including most recently when he was pummeled for a season-high seven hits over five innings against the Los Angeles Angels. The ball is in play often when Sanchez is on the mound, with the lefty not helping himself much while posting a pedestrian 8.9 K/9.
His Baseball Savant page features a smattering of blue and light blue, which is pleasing to the eye but less so to his pitching coach. Sanchez's expected batting average allowed sits down in the 31st percentile, with his averaging exit velocity in the 42nd.
The hurler also often battles command issues, leading to juicy mislocated pitches to whack. That's also translated to a ballooning 4.0 BB/9. The latter is somewhat concerning for this prop since an elevated pitch count could lead to an early exit. However, Sanchez nearly cashed the Over here on April 23 against the Cincinnati Reds while allowing four hits over only three innings.
A $10 play at -152 odds leads to a $16.60 payout and an implied win probability of $60.2%.
Best odds: -152 via Betway
Berrios isn't far removed from putting together a stellar stretch when he went 21 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run.
His pinpoint command during that run has made him efficient and allowed the Blue Jays' standout right-hander to consistently last deep into outings. He's failed to complete six innings only once over seven starts, and that comes with an asterisk because of weather issues that ultimately ended in a game getting called after five innings against the Kansas City Royals.
But all that could quickly matter little on Tuesday. A pitcher who's posting a basement-level 6.4 K/9 matches up poorly against a Phillies team brimming with power that ranks third leaguewide in OPS. As impressive as he's been while frequently generating ground balls to end plate appearances fast, there could be regression looming. When Berrios is hit, it usually comes with a loud noise, as he sits in the bottom 4% of MLB while giving up a hard-hit rate of 50.4%.
Putting down $10 on the -105 odds at Betway would result in a $19.50 payout at an implied probability of 51.3%.
Best odds: -105 via Betway
Blue Jays vs. Phillies game info & odds
- When: Tuesday, May 7
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Ballpark, Philadelphia
- How to watch: Sportsnet
- Favorite: Phillies (-120 via Betway)
Blue Jays vs. Phillies player props made Tuesday at 9:24 a.m. ET.
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