Blue Jays-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, June 13

AL East hopefuls square off as the Toronto Blue Jays head south to begin a crucial divisional series against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. First pitch from Camden Yards is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Righty Chris Bassitt (7-4, 3.29 ERA) will get the ball for the Jays, while Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer (6-3, 4.89).

Toronto enters as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the O's are narrow +105 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Blue Jays

Day to day: 1B/DH Brandon Belt (hamstring), OF Kevin Kiermaier (wrist), C Danny Jansen (groin)
Out: RP Zach Pop (hamstring)

Orioles

Day to day: 3B Gunnar Henderson (illness)
Out: OF Cedric Mullins (groin), RP Mychal Givens (shoulder), RP Dillon Tate (elbow)

Chris Bassitt vs. Dean Kremer

After giving up nine runs in his Blue Jays debut, Bassitt has settled in nicely in year one with his new team. The righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 13 starts on the season, and he's been on a roll lately, allowing two runs total on just eight hits over 15.2 innings in the month of June. Bassitt will never rack up gaudy strikeout numbers, but his kitchen-sink approach – he'll bust out seven distinct pitches in any given game – keepers hitters off balance and once again has him among the league's leaders in forcing weak contact (77th percentile in average exit velocity, 75th in hard-hit rate).

Advanced metrics really don't like Kremer, but the righty keeps finding ways to get results, with a 3.57 ERA over seven starts since the calendar flipped to May. Of course, there might be a bit of luck involved there, as his expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate and xwOBA all fall in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Kremer generally shows good command, but he just doesn't have good enough stuff to miss bats consistently. He struggled in his last time out, allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

If you want to know how fortunate Kremer has been this year, look no further than his first start against Toronto back on May 21, in which he escaped with just one run allowed despite giving up nine hits and two walks over 5.1 innings. Still, this Blue Jays lineup hasn't been quite as strong as you'd expect of late, scoring five or more runs just twice over their last 12 games. With Bassitt keeping the O's in check and pitcher-friendly Camden Yards helping to turn balls in play into outs, I don't think Toronto scores enough to push us over here.

Pick: Under 8.5

A weekend sweep of the Kansas City Royals managed to get Baltimore back on track, but this team has been struggling a bit recently amid the Mullins injury and their lack of starting pitching depth. The Jays are finally starting to hit their stride, and with the rock-solid Bassitt on the mound (and the potential return of Jansen, Kiermaier and Belt to the lineup) I'm backing Toronto here with the better starter and lineup at relatively even odds.

Pick: Blue Jays

  
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