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The Buffalo Bills have stormed out of the gate and look to extend their unbeaten streak to four games when they invade M&T Bank Stadium for Sunday Night Football.
However, they're the Sunday Night Football odds underdogs and should have their work cut out against the 1-2 Baltimore Ravens.
- Buffalo beat Baltimore 23-20 in Week 4 of the 2022 season, thanks to a last-second field goal
- Josh Allen, with nine touchdowns, is the MVP odds favorite entering the contest
- The Bills hold the third-shortest Super Bowl odds
Our Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football prediction analyzes whether the Ravens' lethal run attack and run-stop unit can prevent the Bills from going 4-0.
The below prediction is part of our comprehensive SNF coverage, including our Bills vs. Ravens prop bets.
Best Bills vs. Ravens picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Ravens -2.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Bills ???
- Player prop: Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions (-130 via bet365) ????
Bills vs. Ravens against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
With 47% of the wagers backing the Ravens, it makes sense that the line is back to the original number of -2.5 after it dipped briefly mid-week as low as -1.5 at FanDuel (and to a low of -2 at our other best sports betting sites).
Recreational bettors may see the 3-0 Bills facing the 1-2 Ravens and suggest that oddsmakers are crazy for making Buffalo underdogs.
However, trends suggest that undefeated underdogs may be in trouble this week. Over the last 10 years, 3-0 underdogs in Week 4 have won just two of 11 games and are 3-7-1 ATS.
And going back the last 20 years, the undefeated teams have won just 24% of games outright and covered 36% of those in that split.
Thus, one must factor in Baltimore's schedule to this point, having played two teams (Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys) that won their divisions last year. Meanwhile, Buffalo has played just one playoff team from a year ago (Miami Dolphins).
So far, the Bills have not been hurt by the losses of defensive captain Terrel Bernard and slot cornerback Taron Johnson.
However, those injuries will be exposed by Baltimore's ability to run between the tackles, as Johnson would have been a big part of containing Lamar Jackson when he moves to the the perimeter.
The Ravens have out-rushed all three of their opponents by 100 or more yards, and Jackson and Derrick Henry rank in the top 10 of the league in rushing yards.
Baltimore ranks first in yards per rush (5.9), rushing first downs (34), is tied for first in 10-yard rushes (19), and ranks second with 203.3 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Bills' defense ranks 22nd, allowing 4.7 yards per rush, so I expect Baltimore to win the time of possession battle.
There is no denying that Josh Allen deserves to be the frontrunner for MVP. He has an NFL-best 93 Total QBR, the most combined passing and rushing touchdowns (nine), and the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (7-0) of any quarterback in the league.
However, Baltimore's run defense has been the best in the NFL (2.8 yards per rush allowed) and ranks second in rush defense EPA/play. We have not seen the Bills' offense be one-dimensional yet this year, but Allen is not likely to be as efficient if the ground g ame with James Cook is rendered ineffective.
All of our top sports betting sites are in unison with the 2.5-point spread, but FanDuel is the only one charging less than -108 odds to back the favorites.
At their -105 odds, a $10 winning wager would profit $9.52.
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Bills vs. Ravens player prop
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Buffalo has been one of the most run-heavy offenses since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. But with the Ravens' run defense being so stout, this should be the game where Allen sets a season-high in pass attempts (his high to this point is 30 attempts).
Baltimore allows a 79.1% completion percentage between the numbers, ranking 26th.
The Ravens have also allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, including being burned by Brock Bowers (nine catches for 98 yards) and Jake Ferguson (six catches for 95 yards).
Just in case the Ravens limit Dalton Kincaid's big-play ability, I am making the Over on his receptions a four-star play and bypassing a play on th e O/U of his receiving yards, which is as high as 38.5 at DraftKings.
The implied probability for Kincaid to haul in four or more passes is as high as 59.35% based on FanDuel's -146 odds. Thus, we are getting the best return on our investment at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would net $7.69 in profits.
Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 56.52%
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Bills vs. Ravens odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Ravens
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, Md.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 73 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph E
- Favorite: Ravens -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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