The Buffalo Bills (4-2) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-5) on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough.
The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 7 matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 7 game with 81.5% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Patriots, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this Week 7 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 84% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+1.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.62% ROI).
- Bills are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.9% ROI
- Bills are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bills are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots went 1-5 (-4.55 Units / -68.42% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -64.18% ROI
- Patriots are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
- Patriots are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) vs top 10 offenses since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .346.
The Bills were undefeated (9-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns in the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
The Bills are 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .527.
The Bills are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .423.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .503.
The Patriots are winless (0-8) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .225.
The Patriots are 1-5 (.167) this season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Patriots are winless (0-4) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2022 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .381.