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First place in the AFC East is on the line as the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. The Bills rank fifth in the Super Bowl odds, while the Jets sit among the second tier of contenders. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is also fourth in the NFL MVP odds.
Both the Bills and Jets have lost two straight games as we look at the best Bills vs. Jets early picks and odds for Week 6. The Jets have scored fewer than 20 points in consecutive contests, and Aaron Rodgers is coming off an ugly three-interception performance against the Minnesota Vikings.
Still, the Jets would occupy first place in the AFC East with a win on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Bills' offense has been struggling in back-to-back weeks after scoring at least 31 points in each of the team's first three games. How will it perform against the Jets' fifth-ranked scoring defense?
O ur C. Jackson Cowart is favoring the Bills in his NFL Week 6 early picks.
My early Bills vs. Jets prediction: Under 41.5
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The Jets are allowing just 17.0 points per game this season. Only one offense has scored more than 20 points against them, and that outing came way back in Week 1.
The Vikings scored 23 last week, but that included a defensive touchdown. The Jets' defense has been as advertised this year.
However, the offense hasn't been nearly as good. The Jets' offense is averaging just 18.6 points per game, and it will likely struggle against a solid Bills defense this week.
The success of this Under will come down to the Bills' offense. If it plays how the unit did in Weeks 1-3, the Over will hit. But nothing I've seen over the past two weeks suggests the Bills can produce that level of success against this defense. They've scored 30 total points over that span.
This is the type of game in which the winning team will tally 20 or fewer points.
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Bills vs. Jets live odds
See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 6 game.
- Bills best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%
- Jets best odds: +124 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.64%
The Bills opened at -135, and the price has increased to at least -140 at all of our best sports betting sites. The Bills' struggles over the last two weeks haven't scared bettors away before this matchup. So if you're on the favorites, get in as soon as possible.
As for the Jets, it's not surprising that bettors hold no faith in them based on their offensive play. However, the Bills field the worst defense the Jets have played in weeks. This number seems destined to climb over +135, and the Jets could be w orth a play at that point.
- Bills best odds: -2.5 (-110) via BetMGM
- Jets best odds: +2.5 (-110) via BetMGM
The Bills are taking all the action right now despite being the road team, with 67% of wagers back them. The spread has already increased to three at FanDuel because of it.
However, the other best sportsbooks have been reluctant to move to the key number. Does that mean those books hold more faith in the Jets than the public?
If the Bills continue to take a heavy majority of the bets and the line doesn't move, then that should signal oddsmakers like the Jets in this game. However, it should just be a matter of time before the Bills are favored by at least three across the board.
- Over best odds: 41 (-108) via DraftKings
- Under best odds: 41.5 (-115) via FanDuel
Currently, 53% of wagers are backing the Over, which signals to me that there isn't going to be much movement before kickoff. However, with this being a prime-time island game, I believe it's much more likely the number will increase to 42 rather than drop to 40.
I really like the Under for this game. Get in at 41.5 now as part of your NFL predictions for Week 6 and then see if the number increases as the week goes along.
How to watch Bills vs. Jets
- When: Monday, Oct. 14
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 59 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, 8-mph westerly winds
- Favorite: Bills -2.5 (-102 via FanDuel)
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