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What player props offer the best value when the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills in a key AFC East matchup?
There's plenty of history to base our best Bills vs. Dolphins TNF prop bets off. Thursday Night Football odds list the Dolphins as slight favorites. But they went 0-2 against the Bills last season, and some of their key players struggled in both games.
Josh Allen threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns the last time these teams faced off, while Tua Tagovailoa managed just 173 yards and one score. The game was played in Miami, and the Dolphins netted just 275 yards.
Will we see similar results on Thursday between two mid-tier teams in the Super Bowl odds?
Bills vs. Dolphins player props: Thursday Night Football
Odds as of Wednesday and subject to change.
- Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (+115 via Draf tKings) ???
- Tyreek Hill Under 96.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ????
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 33.5 pass attempts (+100 via FanDuel) ????
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
Allen threw 18 interceptions last season, including at least one in 14 of his 17 regular-season games. However, he didn't throw one in either of his two postseason outings, and the signal-caller started this campaign with a two-touchdown, zero-interception performance.
Though Allen, who sits second in the NFL MVP odds, threw two interceptions against the Dolphins in Week 18 last season, he hasn't thrown a pick in six of his last seven affairs against them. I'm not willing to say that Allen has turned a corner and his turnover troubles are behind him, but the value is on the Under here.
The best price available for the Over is -145 at DraftKings and bet365. Several of our best sportsbooks are featuring the Over at -150. That price is fair against a normal defense, but Allen has established a great history when facing the Dolphins.
Best odds: +115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 46.51%
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Maybe this will be the week Tyreek Hill breaks out against the Bills while wearing a Dolphins uniform. He's played against the Bills five times since joining the Dolphins, and the results haven't been good. Still, Hill sits atop the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds after Week 1.
His best performance against Buffalo came in Week 18 of last season when he caught seven passes for 82 yards and one touchdown. He's gone Under 70 yards in the other four games. The Bills do a great job game planning for Hill, and until he manages a significant output against them, there's no reason to take his Over when the number is set so high.
This total is based on who Hill is as a talent, not on his actual performances against this division rival. Getting the Under for -110 is too good to pass up. Some of our best sports betting sites are setting the total set at 98.5, but the Under is more expensive.
Hill might struggle, but our Mike Spector thinks Jaylon Waddle is set up for success in his Bills vs. Dolphins prediction.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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FanDuel is alone among our best sports betting apps while offering this Over for a price better than -110. Getting it at +100 feels like a miscalculation, especially when considering what's going on with the Dolphins' backfield.
Raheem Mostert is out for Thursday night, and De'Von Achane is a game-time decision. Even if Achane plays, he won't be 100%, which means Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to be the team's lead back in this game. If the Dolphins are going to stay competitive, it will be because of their passing game.
The Bills will do a good job of taking Hill out of the contest, but Tagovailoa will need to get up a lot of pass attempts regardless. He attempted 35 passes in his first game against the Bills last season.
Tagovailoa hit this Over eight times last campaign, then hit it in his first game this year. Without a run game, he'll do it again as part of our N FL Week 2 predictions.
Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.00%
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Bills vs. Dolphins odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 78 degrees, 23% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds
- Favorite: Dolphins (-135 via DraftKings)
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