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Two division rivals and playoff teams from a year ago will meet on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. According to our Week 2 NFL odds, the AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins and the visiting Buffalo Bills is one of the most anticipated matchups on the slate.
The Bills have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Dolphins (including the playoffs), and that will likely surprise many to see Buffalo as road underdogs in this matchup based on the Thursday Night Football odds.
But my Bills vs. Dolphins prediction agrees that the correct team is favored in this primetime affair, and I am backing that up with my most confident five-star play. I also analyze which Dolphins player I expect to take advantage of a Buffalo defense that moved on from many of its veteran defensive stalwarts from years past as I make my Week 2 NFL predictions.
Best Bills vs. Dolphins picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Dolphins -1.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Bills ?????
- Player prop: Jaylen Waddle anytime touchdown scorer (+170 via FanDuel) ???
Bills vs. Dolphins spread prediction: Thursday Night Football
Buffalo will get a lot of betting support this week, having dominated the head-to-head with the Dolphins over the last several years and coming into this year as the favorite to win its fifth consecutive AFC East title.
However, this year's team is constructed much differently than the Bills teams of recent years, and that should be too much to overcome in this matchup.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may be just 1-6 straight up in seven career games against Josh Allen, but he and the Dolphins are about to face a v astly different Bills defense than in the past.
In the offseason, Buffalo parted ways with three of its most critical secondary members, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde and cornerback Tre'Davious White. It's also without Taron Johnson (forearm) for this game. The Bills were already going to have difficulty with the Dolphins' passing attack.
Over the last two years, Tagovailoa has ranked in the top five among all quarterbacks in QBR, yards per attempt, and passing touchdowns.
It took a Herculean effort from Allen last week to help the Bills climb out of a 14-point deficit against the Arizona Cardinals. He became the fifth player with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns in a season opener, and he is now tied with Steve Young for the most games (four) with multiple passing and rushing touchdowns in the same game in his career. Allen would need another game of that magnitude to keep pace with the h igh-scoring Dolphins.
Last year, Tagovailoa went 1-6 in seven starts against teams over .500, posting an 8-7 TD-INT ratio, completing 63% of his passes, producing a 46 Total QBR, and leading the team to a 16.1 points per game average in those starts.
But prepping for Miami's speed is difficult in any week, let alone a short week, and Buffalo's personnel is not as equipped to handle what Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins offense will throw at it.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering Miami at -1.5 with the standard -110 juice. With most competing sportsbooks at -2, I am making my $10 wager at FanDuel, which would pay out $19.09 if it cashes.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Bills vs. Dolphins player prop
Waddle is one of nine players with 1,000 or more receiving yards in each of their first three seasons in NFL history. And while that had me looking at his O/U of 63.5 receiving yards as a potential play, I could not pass up the value of his anytime touchdown odds.
Waddle's touchdowns were cut in half from eight to four last season, but he played three fewer games and is still a big reason Miami receivers finished in the top four of the league in receiving yards, yards per reception, first downs, and touchdowns (30).
Waddle has 102 or more receiving yards in two of the last three games against the Bills, so I expect positive regression from a touchdown standpoint, as he has just one touchdown catch in that span.
Caesars has the shortest odds (+138) for Waddle to score a touchdown, so FanDuel's +170 odds are a g reat value, where a winning $10 wager would return $17 in profits.
Best odds: +170 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.04%
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Bills vs. Dolphins odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 90 degrees, 48% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph SSE
- Favorite: Dolphins (-125 via BetMGM)
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