The AFC East is on the line during Sunday Night Football when the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins face off in Week 18 to conclude the 2023 NFL season, and our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction for Sunday Night Football based on the best NFL odds expects a significant game from the road favorites.
The Buffalo Bills (10-6) were left for dead a few weeks ago. Now they're among the Super Bowl odds favorites and are laying three points on the road against the Miami Dolphins (11-5) in a winner-take-all AFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo was a long shot to win the AFC East when it entered December with a .500 record and one of the NFL's toughest schedules ahead. Four wins later, the Bills are the ones favored to take the division after the Dolphins' late-season collapse ahead of this Week 18 clash.
As part of our Week 18 NFL predic tions, here is our best Bills vs. Dolphins prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Dolphins prediction: Sunday Night Football
This line appears to be skewed in favor of the Bills – the month-long darlings of NFL talking heads and futures bettors alike – and against underdog Miami. The latter is catching a field goal at home despite owning the better record with just as much at stake during Sunday's AFC East title game.
In reality, this isn't the same Dolphins team that notched a 50-point win over the Denver Broncos in September. And depending on who suits up Sunday, this 3-point line might not be going far enough.
Tyreek Hill, the engine for Miami's record-setting offense, appeared to re-aggravate his high ankle sprain in Week 17 and is questionable to play. He's combined for just 236 total yards and zero scores over three games since the injury, compared to 1,496 yards and 12 TDs across a dozen games prior.
Jaylen Waddle (ankle), the speedster on the other side of the formation, missed last week and seems unlikely to play Sunday. That's also the case for top rusher Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle), whose 21 touchdowns are tied for the league lead. Finally, electric running mate De'Von Achane was one of 10 players limited in practice.
Even if those guys do play, injuries have been decimating the Dolphins' defense lately. Star pass rusher Bradley Chubb (ACL) and cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) both went down during a 56-19 Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens – a game with similar winner-take-all stakes for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Even QB Tua Tagovailoa (shoulder) finished on the sideline, though he's expected to play Sunday while the other two are not.
We don't need to imagine how those injuries will affect the Dolphins, as that's already shown up on the field. This team blew a 14-point lead in three minutes during Week 14, the beginning of the Dolphins' major injury woes. And Miami's 37-point loss in Week 17 was the worst of the season and seventh-worst in franchise history.
The Bills also haven't been the same team over the last month, but that's also why they're dealing as such heavy favorites.
Buffalo has gone 4-0 with the sixth-best scoring differential (plus-32) in December since its Week 13 bye. That's nothing new for this group, which ranks third in weighted DVOA, total DVOA, and net EPA/play and fourth in season-long scoring margin (plus-133).
The major difference lately has been this club's approach, as the Bills have been suffocating teams with their resurgent run game and opportunistic defense. They'll likely need more from Josh Allen against Miami, but he'll face a 'Fins defense without its top two pass-rushers. It's a unit Allen already torched for 320 yards and four touchdowns during a 48-20 win in Week 4.
Buffalo has won 12 of 14 games against Miami since Sean McDermott took over in 2017, which includes three straight wins against Mike McDaniel. All three of those victories have come by at least three points, and the third marked the largest loss (28 points) of the McDaniel era prior to Week 17.
These aren't the same teams that faced off in Week 4, and that's exactly why the Bills remain field-goal favorites, even on the road. Maybe the line doesn't appear so skewed, after all.
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Bills vs. Dolphins best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills -3 | Bills -3 | Bills -3 | Bills -3 | Bills -3 |
| -110 | -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
This is a pretty sharp line, with nearly all of our best sports betting sites offering the Bills as 3-point favorites at -110 odds. The only exception is FanDuel (-108), which is where we'd recommend placing this bet.
With this wager dealing at such similar prices across our best sportsbooks, I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which shop is offering the bonus bet for Sunday Night Football.
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Bills vs. Dolphins odds for Sunday Night Football
Bil ls vs. Dolphins odds analysis
The Bills briefly opened at -1.5, but the market quickly corrected to -3 across our best sports betting apps, which are in near-perfect unison ahead of Sunday's regular-season finale to decide the AFC East.
Buffalo was catching 1.5 points when this game was first offered ahead of Week 17, which speaks to the myriad injury woes and poor performances that are plaguing the Dolphins down the stretch.
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 68 degrees, 35% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds
Bills-Dolphins prediction made Wednesday at 10:30 p.m. ET.
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