The Buffalo Bills (1-0-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (1-0-0) on Sep. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Miami Gardens, FL.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 49 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 55.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Dawson Knox has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 90% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 89% ROI)
- Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Array | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
| Array | 98.5 -115 | 98.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Array | 60.5 -120 | 60.5 -110 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have scored last in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.20 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bills went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Bills are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 34.48% ROI
- Bills are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bills are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Dolphins went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Dolphins are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 54.05% ROI
- Dolphins are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bills are 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when not forcing a turnover since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .257.
The Bills were undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .571.
The Dolphins were winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Dolphins were undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins ran successful plays on 61.4% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills allowed successful plays on 57.1% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — worst in NFL.