In a week filled with chaos, we're targeting three Buffalo players who will do everything they can to help their team win with our top Bills vs. Dolphins player props for Week 18 based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.
The 2023-24 regular season fittingly ends with Week 18's most important game, as the Buffalo Bills travel to Miami to square off with the Dolphins on Sunday night.
Unlike plenty of games in Week 18 that will feature players who are usually relegated to the bench, any starter who isn't injured is expected to play in this battle for the AFC East crown.
We're targeting three Bills skill-position players with our top player props, as the visiting favorites will surely do everything they can to snatch the top spot in the division away from the Dolphins.
To accompany C Jackson Cowart's Bills vs. Dolphi ns prediction and NFL best bets, here are our best Bills vs. Dolphins NFL player props for Week 18 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Dolphins NFL player props: Week 18
It's no secret Stefon Diggs has put together a forgettable second half of the campaign. The talented wide receiver kicked off the season with five 100-plus-yard receiving efforts in his first six games. However, following a six-catch, 86-yard performance in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals, Diggs has recorded more than 50 receiving yards in just one of seven contests.
This is a good spot to back Diggs, though, as our best sports betting apps have overcorrected the odds on his receiving props. The market we're targeting in Week 18 is Diggs' receptions prop, with the Over trading at plus money.
Across eight projection models, Di ggs' average receptions projection is 5.8. When we run that number against BetMGM's +105 odds on the Over, we're getting roughly 7% positive expected value on this bet. DraftKings and bet365 also offer the Over at +105, so you get your choice between three of our best sports betting sites.
At Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, the Over is priced at -112 after opening at +109.
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Caesars boost for Bills vs. Dolphins
Caesars is boosting the odds for Diggs to have 50+ receiving yards from -195 to +100!
Offer not applicable in Ontario.
Following two brutal performances against the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers, in which Dalton Kincaid caught just one pass for seven yards, the talented rookie tight end bounced back with four catches and 87 receiving yards during Week 17 against the New England Patriots.
Despite that strong performance, one of our best sportsbooks is still offering Over 3.5 receptions for Kincaid at even money.
Kincaid's average receptions projection across eight models is 3.86. We're getting roughly 8% +EV while playing the Over at Caesars with its +100 odds. Comparatively, Pinnacle prices the Over at -117 after opening at -114.
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FanDuel boost for Bills vs. Dolphins
FanDuel is boosting the odds for Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to each have 200+ passing yards and for James Cook to have 40+ rushing yards during Sunda y Night Night Football from -120 to +150!
Offer available within all legal U.S. sports betting regions where FanDuel operates.
The Bills are projected to somewhat reverse course from their recent run-heavy game plans in this all-important showdown with the Dolphins.
James Cook has racked up 61 carries over the last three games, going Over this number twice. However, he's projected for only 64.27 rushing yards in Week 18.
This prop positively correlates with our two prior selections, as logic tells us Cook will receive fewer rushing opportunities if Diggs and Kincaid are collecting a combined 10-plus receptions.
FanDuel is also the only one of our best live betting sites offering this line at 64.5 rushing yards. The remainder are sitting at 63.5, with BetRivers even lower at 62.5.
My only reservation about this bet is that Pinnacle's total of 63.5 is steaming to the Over. It opened at -114 and has moved to -123.
However, we're still getting roughly 8% +EV by playing this Under at FanDuel, making it a solid three-star play.
Bills-Dolphins player props made Friday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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