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The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins battle for AFC East supremacy on Thursday Night Football after each secured a Week 1 win. Miami is the early favorite by the NFL Week 2 odds.
Buffalo and Miami each overcame two-touchdown deficits to earn wins in their home season openers. Bills quarterback Josh Allen tied Steve Young's NFL record with his fourth career game of two-plus rushing and two-plus passing touchdowns
My Bills vs. Dolphins early leans and odds incorporate the fact that he was dealing with an injury to his left hand after the win as I dissect the Thursday Night Football odds.
Bills vs. Dolphins live odds
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- Dolphins best odds: -118 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.13%
- Bills best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probabili ty: 48.08%
There is a relatively big 12-cent gap between Miami's longest moneyline odds (-118 at DraftKings) and its shortest (-130 via FanDuel).
Most reports indicate that Allen's hand injury is not serious enough to affect him on Thursday night, but if there were to be conflicting reports after he undergoes X-rays, the line would surely tilt in Miami's favor.
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- Dolphins best odds: -1 (-110) via DraftKings
- Bills best odds: +2 (-110) via Caesars
Three of the last five meetings between these teams since the start of the 2022 season have been decided by three or fewer points. Thus, barring unforeseen news regarding Allen's hand injury, the spread should never get to -3, as it would likely be gobbled up quickly by Bills backers.
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- Over best odds: 50.5 (-110) via DraftKings
- Under best odds: 50.5 (-105) via BetMGM
This line is as sharp as it gets at the moment, as the only difference between the best sports betting apps is that BetMGM's odds are slightly juiced to the Over. Primetime Unders are 79-48 the last two seasons, so bettors who are in tune with that trend are likely to drive the total down, but not by much, considering all sportsbooks are currently in unison with the 50.5-point total.
My early Bills vs. Dolphins lean: Dolphins -1
NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Consider this a contrarian wager, as Tua Tagovailoa is just 1-6 SU (and 2-4-1 ATS) against Josh Allen in his career. Miami has lost 11 of its last 12 meetings with Buffalo, and the Bills were even road favorites in an all-important Week 18 road matchup against the Dolphins last year when so much playoff seeding was at stake.
However, Miami is 7-1 in September under head coach Mike McDaniel, which includes the Dolphins' only win (21-19 in Week 3 of 2022) against the Bills in the last 12 matchups. Buffalo also had a much more veteran presence on defense in the past, and will feel the loss of safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde when trying to defend Miami's dangerous vertical passing attack.
I expect Allen to be a full-go and not limited in any way by his hand injury, but I would still advise all those looking to back the Dolphins to take advantage of their low one-point spread in case the line moves their direction before Thursday.
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How to watch Bills vs. Dolphins
- When: Thursday, Sept. 12
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: 89 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SE
- Favorite: Dolphins (-120 via BetMGM)
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