The Buffalo Bills (4-8) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) on Dec. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this Week 14 matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 14 game with 55.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 70.6% confidence.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this Week 14 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+1.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 4-8 (-4.7 Units / -36.15% ROI).
- Bills are 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -18.35% ROI
- Bills are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Bills are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 7-5 (+1.5 Units / 11.32% ROI).
- Chiefs are 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -3.91% ROI
- Chiefs are 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chiefs are 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.
The Bills are 8-1 (.889) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 17 passes since the 2022 season — tied for fourth-fewest in NFL.
The Bills are winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .219.
The Bills are 1-5 (.167) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Chiefs are 17-4 (.810) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — third-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 47 times since the 2022 season — tied for third-most in NFL.
The Chiefs are undefeated (6-0) after a loss since the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .467.
The Chiefs are 8-2 (.800) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .639.