The Buffalo Bills (6-8) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9) on Dec. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Inglewood, CA.
The Bills are betting favorites in this Week 16 matchup, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Chargers Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 16 game with 79.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 65.9% confidence.
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Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this Week 16 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gabriel Davis has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.75 Units / 17% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 6-8 (-2.7 Units / -17.76% ROI).
- Bills are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -12.44% ROI
- Bills are 4-10 when betting the Over for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Bills are 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers went 5-9 (-4.9 Units / -31.61% ROI).
- Chargers are 5-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -26.21% ROI
- Chargers are 4-10 when betting the Over for -7 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Chargers are 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.6 Units / 36.36% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Bills are 16-4 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2022 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed an average of 131.8 rushing yards per game since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bills are 3-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL. The Chargers have intercepted 7 passes this season — T-5th-fewest in NFL.
The Bills are 6-2 (.750) vs top 10 offenses since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .321.
The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing less than 25 times this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .292.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Chargers are winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .160.
The Chargers are 5-9 (.357) this season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers are 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.
The Chargers are 2-5 (.286) at home this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .566.