The Buffalo Bills enter Saturday's Week 16 clash with the Los Angeles Chargers as heavy favorites, and we're looking to target this mismatch with our top Bills vs. Chargers NFL player props for Sunday Night Football based on the best SNF odds at the best sports betting sites.
The Bills (8-6) were on the brink of collapse only a few weeks ago, as their dwindling NFL playoff odds lengthened each day. They're now serving as nearly two-touchdown favorites against the Chargers (5-9), who just fired their head coach and general manager.
Buffalo turned its season around with two wins over fellow Super Bowl odds contenders, and it enters this special Sunday Night Football contest primed to exploit the mismatches against the Chargers' much-maligned defense. On the other side, how will Los Angeles respond with three weeks left in another lost season?
In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions and NFL Week 16 player props and to accompany our Bills vs. Chargers prediction and Josh Allen NFL player props, here are our best Bills vs. Chargers NFL player props for Saturday's edition of Sunday Night Football (NFL odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Chargers NFL player props: Sunday Night Football
I highlighted this bet in my Week 16 NFL player props, where I laid out in detail why this is my favorite bet of the week across any sport.
I won't go as in-depth here – check out the above article for that – but it's a fairly straightforward case: the Chargers are terrible at defending tight ends, ranking among the league's worst in targets (103), receptions (78), and receiving yards (823) allowed to the position. Derwin James is a major reason why, as the former All-Pro safety is in the midst of a care er-worst season as has been one of the worst safeties in football.
Kincaid has finished with at least five catches in seven of his last eight games, the outlier coming last week against a Dallas Cowboys defense notorious for shutting down opposing tight ends. And while the rookie Kincaid ceded some snaps to fellow tight end Dawson Knox, the veteran teammate also finished with zero catches and wasn't even targeted all day.
There's been some concern about Kincaid's marginalized role, but I wouldn't read into it too much given how integral he's been to this offense to this point. I'd expect him to be a much more featured part of the game plan in a plus-matchup on Saturday.
While these odds aren't as good as the +130 offering from bet365 earlier this week, three of our five best sportsbooks are dealing this prop at even money or worse, so we'll take this price on our best bet o f the week.
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This number has been dropping all week at the best sportsbooks, so hopefully you were able to bet this one early if you already had eyes on it. If not, the Under is still worth a play amid Ekeler's precipitous fall from grace.
This entire season has been a headache for Ekeler (and his fantasy owners) after the pending free agent's contentious contract negotiations over the summer. He hasn't done himself any favors on the field, falling short of this number in seven of 11 games and four of the last five.
The nadir came last week, when Ekeler saw a season-low five carries f or nine yards and played just 26 snaps – his fewest in a game (when healthy) since 2019. It wasn't just an issue of game script, as fellow backs Isaiah Spiller (16 carries) and Joshua Kelley (five) both equalled or surpassed Ekeler's workload on the ground.
It's also not just about opportunity, either. Ekeler has been the NFL's third-worst running back this season among 41 players with at least 100 attempts, per PFF grade, and he ranks among the league's worst in yards per carry (3.6) and rushing success rate (44.7%).
This is also a bit of a speculative bet that Smith, the Chargers' interim coach, opts to play the team's younger backs over the 28-year-old Ekeler, who very likely won't be with the team beyond 2023. This could be the highest prop total we ever see again for Ekeler at the best sportsbooks, so count me in on the Under at the best sports betting sites.
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This may seem like a steep price for the NFL's most turnover-prone QB to keep his powder dry on Saturday. Yet this bet is all about the matchup.
Sure, Allen has thrown an interception in 11 of 14 starts this season and ranks second in the league in total INTs (14). He didn't throw one last week, though, in a 31-10 rout over the Dallas Cowboys that saw Allen attempt just 15 passes – tied for his second-fewest in a game in his six-year career.
Los Angeles' defense is in disarray after firing head coach Brandon Staley following one of the worst efforts in NFL history last Thursday. Part of the issue is an inabi lity to generate turnovers: the Chargers rank in the bottom five in interceptions forced (seven) and have picked off exactly one pass since October, an incredibly dubious feat spanning seven games.
This is still a three-star play at the best sportsbooks because, well, Allen has thrown more than a dozen interceptions this year. That's hard to ignore. But I'd still be surprised if he tosses one Saturday.
Bills-Chargers NFL player props for Sunday Night Football on Saturday made Friday at 2:35 p.m. ET.
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