Cincinnati ended Buffalo's 2023 campaign during the divisional round, and now the Bills are seeking revenge as we present our top predictions for the Bills vs. Bengals Sunday Night Football matchup, all backed by the best available NFL odds from our best sports betting apps..
The Buffalo Bills, who initially produced a lackluster 4-3 record, their worst start since 2018, made a notable resurgence by securing a crucial victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. This win not only revitalized their campaign but also demonstrated their ability to compete at a high level. Their resilience in close contests is evident as they've been involved in five games decided by a single possession, holding a 2-3 record in such matchups.
On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals continued their dominance in the NFC West by achieving a convincing 31-17 road victory against t he San Francisco 49ers, successfully completing their divisional sweep. However, the Bengals have encountered challenges while facing non-NFC West teams this season, maintaining a 0-3 record when competing against AFC opponents. This indicates that while they excel within their division, they need to improve their performance against teams from other divisions to further solidify their playoff chances.
In conjunction with our Bills-Bengals player props and Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow props, here is our best Bills-Bengals prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bills vs. Bengals prediction: Sunday Night Football
Cincinnati started 1-2 this season, and a lot of those early season struggles were due to a calf injury that quarterback Joe Burrow suffered in the preseason. After Week 3, Burrow had a 38 Total QBR, averaged 6.1 air yards per attempt, had a -4.5% Completion Percentage Over Expected, and was off target on 19% of his throws. From 2020-2022, Burrow averaged a 57 Total QBR, 7.6 air yards per attempt, a +4.2% CPOE, and was off target on 12% of his throws.
The Bengals coaching staff protected him so much through the injury that in Week 3, they ran 51 of 56 plays out of shotgun formation (tied for the fourth-most in Burrow's career) to have him avoid dropping back far to pass. However, Burrow looks much more healthy, given that his completion percentage in Week 8 was 17.8% above expected (the best in his career, per Next Gen Stats), and his improvement has coincided with Cincinnati's best stretch of football.
Facing the 5-3 Bills plays right into Cincinnati's wheelhouse. Against teams two or more games over .500 over the previous two seasons (including playoffs), the Bengals are an NFL-best 6-0 (1st), have held those opponents to an NFL-best 16.8 points per game, rank second in Defensive Efficiency (64), and have the third-best red zone percentage (36%).
Cincinnati's defensive performance against the 49ers was marked by forcing three turnovers, continuing the Bengals' impressive streak of eight takeaways in the last three games, a significant improvement from the five turnovers the team forced in the first four games of the season. The Bengals have also demonstrated a strong pass rush, with 10 or more quarterback pressures in six games during 2023, ranking them among the top teams in this category. These factors make the Bengals a solid four-star play, as it's expected that Josh Allen, who's produced the most turnovers (53) over the previous three seasons, will contribute turnovers and bolster Cincinnati's chances of success.
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Bills vs. Bengals best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | -2.5 | N/A | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| -126 | -128 | N/A | -127 | -125 |
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the Bengals as 3-point home favorites, and while Caesars and bet365 offer +100 odds to back them at that number, the alternate spread and laying less than a field goal is more enticing.
There is a chance that the spread could move off the key number in Buffalo's favor before kickoff, so we would not put anyone off waiting to see if any -2.5s spring up throughout the week, as one would get a better price on that regular point spread than compared to the alternate line.
Bills vs. Bengals odds for Sunday Night Football
Bills vs. Bengals odds analysis
Cincinnati backers missed the best number if they waited until now to make their wagers, as our best sports betting sites had it as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday night soon after the result of the Bengals beating the 49ers was known. However, the line movement to -3 was likely a mix of public and sharp action, as 71% of early point spread wagers have backed the favorites, even though Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
Our best sportsbooks are in unison with an O/U of 48.5 points, and only FanDuel is juiced to one side (-115 to back the Over). The total has increased at all shops throughout the week, from opening numbers of 47 at most of our sites with the best sportsbook promos and BetMGM slightly higher at 47.5. This has been a case of reverse line movement, as early betting splits are 60/40 in support of the Under. The Under has cashed in the last four meetings between these teams dating back to 2016.
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 62 degrees, 33% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph WSW
Bills-Bengals prediction made 10/31/2023 at 6:09 a.m. ET
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