On Saturday night in Las Vegas, one of eight remaining teams will be crowned the champion of the NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament, Commissioner Adam Silver's soccer-inspired attempt to add some sizzle to the shake-off-the-cobwebs phase of the regular season.
The quarterfinals get underway Monday, with Boston (a 5-point favorite at FanDuel) visiting Indiana and New Orleans on the road against Sacramento (-4.5). On Tuesday, the Knicks visit the Bucks (-6) in Milwaukee, while the nightcap features the marquee matchup of the elite eight, with the Lakers (-2) hosting the Suns in Los Angeles.
Four of the aforementioned quarterfinalists – Boston (+350 at SuperBook Sports to win the NBA title), Milwaukee (6/1), Phoenix (10/1), and L.A. (14/1) – are among the favorites to win it all at season's end. The other four – Sacramento (25/1), New York (50/1), New Orleans (50/1), and Indiana (100/1) – are not.'But the odds for who will hoist the first NBA Cup on Saturday look a bit different.
The Celtics (3/1 at Betfred) and Bucks (+330) are at the shortest prices to run the table in the single-elimination format, but the Kings (5/1) are seen as having a better chance than either the Lakers (+550) or Suns (6/1).
“When we put these odds together for the outrights, we looked at the groups and the chances for progressing outside the group,” explained Jeff Sherman, the SuperBook's vice president of risk management. “It wasn’t just pure power ranking. Some teams just had easier paths there. When you look at the odds at this point, the Lakers are playing Phoenix in that [quarterfinal] game and one of those teams has to lose, whereas Sacramento is a favorite at home against New Orleans. The [Kings’] chances for progression are greater.”
Of the quarterfinalists, the two wild card entries – the Suns and Knicks – advanced by virtue of a superior point differential than teams with identical records after four games of round-robin group play. The other six won their groups, with point differential playing a factor there as well. For instance, the Celtics resorted to running up the score on Chicago in the fourth quarter Tuesday in order to break a three-way tie with Brooklyn and Orlando and win Group C by the narrowest of margins.
This dynamic was something the SuperBook accounted for, but it didn't get much of a rise out of bettors.
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“Golden State against San Antonio, it felt like it was inflated up by about a point,” Sherman said. “Phoenix we did [against Memphis], but then Durant was out, so the line crashed. So we slightly did, but the games were bet by professionals and the general public as though it was a regular game. We tried to subtly factor it in, but it didn’t make a difference.”
“With the NFL and college football going, it’s really hard to gain traction, because that’s where the bettors’ money is going right now,” added Betfred trader Phil Hayden. “The handle for games is the same for the In-Season Tournament as for the regular-season games.”
Room to improve
Now that the tournament has reached its moneyball phase – with each player on the winning team receiving $500,000, with lesser prizes for the runners-up – Sherman feels as though bettor interest might percolate. For one thing, there will be no other games played on the nights (Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday) when tournament games are scheduled, giving them NBA bettors' undivided attention.
In terms of what combination of semifinalists would be the biggest boon to handle at the SuperBook and Betfred's Vegas properties, those four teams with the shortest Finals odds are the surest bets.
“We’re rooting for the Lakers, Suns, or Celtics, as they are more the public rooting teams,” Hayden said. “Las Vegas has a big Laker following, obviously, so they will be the best team for the championship game.”
“If you have Boston playing Milwaukee and the Lakers involved, I think you’re going to have more handle than you’d expect to see,” said Sherman. “I don’t think this is going to be the type of event to draw people from the markets that are in it. You have to wait until Monday or Tuesday night to see if your team is going to make it. If you’re a Knicks or Bucks fan, you’re not going to commit to coming unless you know they’re going to be there.
“I think if they’d had these quarterfinals with a lag time, go back to regular season, and pick up with the semifinal in three weeks, you might see more fan support. I think it’s just gonna be locals in the arena. You might get some that will come up from L.A. to see it.”
Asked what the NBA could do to add intrigue to the tournament in future seasons, Sherman replied, “There might be some incentive areas, maybe somehow improving draft position — they’re thrust into the lottery if they weren’t otherwise.”'
But again, he added, “The most important thing would be not to have these semifinals and finals two days after the quarterfinals. You can get more local fan engagement that might want to take the trip to see their teams play.”