We're back after two winners in last week's article! It was a blast to dive into the game in England, so why not start this week with another pick for Sunday morning’s game overseas? Let's find out why I'm backing over 41 total points on BetMGM for the Ravens vs. Titans game in the U.K.
This season, Baltimore and Tennessee have both been fantastic in preventing red-zone touchdowns. The Ravens are sitting at a league-best 25% in allowing TDs while the Titans are fourth-best at 35%. Those numbers would be historically elite, but there is plenty of time for regression since we're not even a third of the way through the schedule.
For reference, last season the Rams owned the best red-zone defense against touchdowns, allowing them 44.4% of the time. That leads me to believe that although these Ravens and Titans defenses are (mostly) good, their rates so far in 2023 are not sustainable.
Offensively, Baltimore has been lights out when getting inside of the opponent’s 20-yard line, with a red-zone touchdown rate of 72%. That percentage is third-best in the league, and while it sounds crazy high, there were nine teams with percentages better than 60% in 2022, so perhaps it’s no fluke.