What both Florida Atlantic and San Diego State did last season to make the Final Four seems different than what other non-power conference teams like George Mason, VCU and Loyola Chicago did over the past few decades.
It wasn’t just some good breaks and luck that helped them make it all the way through their brackets. Last year the Owls and the Aztecs were two of the best teams in the country regardless of conference affiliation.
FAU, which won 28 regular-season games, started the season inside KenPom’s Top 100 and progressively moved into the 20s before the start of the NCAA Tournament.
SDSU, with 24 regular-season wins, was in the teens for the KenPom rankings for most of the season.
These teams shouldn’t have surprised fans or bettors going as far as they did. But it did for many because of how much we still value conference affiliation in the handicapping process.
Well, let last season be a learning experience for futures bettors. The time has come to adjust early-season handicapping and include some work in trying to identify who could be the next FAU. The setting is ripe for another one to emerge.
The transfer portal and NIL deals have helped spread the talent pool across many more conferences thus altering the landscape of college basketball. Mid-major conferences like Conference USA and the Mountain West are benefiting from being in the middle because they are getting untapped talent moving down and hungry players moving up.
When most players at this level don’t see college basketball as a brief off ramp on the way to the NBA like they often do in the Power Five neighborhoods, there is more of an opportunity for coaches to create continuity.