BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Dolphins-Bengals TNF
Find out which NFL bets we're targeting for Thursday Night Football
By BetQL – Sep 28, 2022, 6:04pm
Dan Karpuc: Bengals -4
The Dolphins may be undefeated, but the injury bug certainly bit them in Week 3. They listed 15 players on their injury report, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle), left tackle Terron Armstead (toe), cornerback Xavien Howard (groin/glute) and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (groin).
We know that the way to limit Cincinnati's offense is by pressuring Joe Burrow (this Bengals offense has allowed 15 sacks in three weeks). However, the Fins have a 15.3% pressure rate (fifth-lowest in NFL) and have registered just six sacks so far. Miami has also missed 21 tackles so far (fourth-most). All of that doesn't exactly paint a pretty outlook for them against a Bengals offense with a bunch of game-breakers.
Burrow and this Bengals offense got back on track against the Jets last week and Cincinnat i's defense performed well, allowing just 12 points. Ja'Marr Chase's blow-up game is going to come soon, so why not against a injury-riddled defense on a short week? BetQL is giving the Bengals a 66.5% chance to beat the Dolphins outright. Plus, BetQL points out that Cincinnati is 10-2 ATS over the last two years against a team with a winning record; 16-6 ATS versus teams that average 235+ passing yards per game; and 12-4 ATS against teams that complete 61% or more of their passes over the last two years. Give me the Bengals -4.