We're inching closer to kickoff on Super Bowl LVII, so it's time to get serious about taking some betting positions ahead of Sunday's big game.
BetMGM has hundreds of football odds markets available to bet, including dozens of individual props for yardage and touchdowns. I've spent the better part of two weeks combing through every single bet to find the ones I like the most.
Best Super Bowl Prop Bets
This is my comprehensive look at everything I've bet… so far. Tail or fade at your leisure.
I placed this bet minutes after the AFC Championship game was resolved and the initial NFL odds market for Super Bowl LVII was priced.'
There are a lot of reasons to like the Eagles in this game; there are also a lot of reasons to prefer Patrick Mahomes or be skeptical of how good Philadelphia actually is, given its regular-season schedule and playoff path through the NFC.
I've appeared on a lot of different media programs over the past two weeks – including my own handicapping podcast for BetMGM, The Lion's Edge – to explain why I like the Eagles. I don't want to try to regurgitate every single data point here.'
The crux of it all is this: Philadelphia has more balance and more depth. The Eagles are better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and the pass rush should harry a wobbly Mahomes.'
Ultimately, they have more paths to win this game, and Hurts' cheap contract situation is in line with the historical models for modern Super Bowl champions.
This number caught my eye as unusually high for a Mahomes rushing total. The KC QB doesn't have 18.5 rushing yards combined in both of his playoff games this year, so why would the expectation for his rushing numbers be so high for this one game?
My suspicion is that it has to do with the mechanics of how the Eagles' pocket pressure will flush Mahomes out and force him to run. But honestly, I've stopped asking too many matchup and scheme-related questions when reading funky numbers. In my experience, I've learned to just lean into the weird number and bet the thing that initially looks funky.
The over for Jalen Hurts' rushing prop is bound to be one of the more popular props at BetMGM, but I'm not so sure it's all that good of a bet.
For one thing, Hurts hasn't secured 50 rushing yards since before he hurt his shoulder. That's not for lack of trying, as he has 29 rushing attempts across the three games that he played in January.
There's also the annual matter of the end-of-game kneel-downs. If you like Philly to win, as I do, Hurts will inevitably lose rushing yards on those “rush attempts” as the game wraps up.'
What I see here is an opening to bet high expectations for rushes but a low expectation for actual rushing production. And the yardage number could potentially tick up as Sunday approaches, which means it may be worth waiting to bet this to see if weekend betting volume inflates the number.
Once again, it's worth looking at what Hurts has done in this department since returning from injury. He just hasn't posted huge passing numbers. Since the Eagles' bye week in mid-October, Hurts has only hit 239 passing yards four times.'
On a broader note, I suspect that Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will want to avoid turning the game into a gunslinger's duel, as a game script in that direction clearly favors Mahomes and the Chiefs. I expect Philadelphia's offensive line to dictate the pace of this game, which means lots of handoffs and play-action for Hurts.
Along those same lines, I do think Mahomes is a lock to end the game with more passing yards than Hurts. Regardless of game script or outcome, this feels like a safe bet. The only thing that could disrupt it is Mahomes getting knocked out of the game.
This is getting a little down in the weeds, but I think it's worth a play.'
Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon is a plodder who's expected to eat up some carries rather than break the game open. I'm not expecting anything explosive from him, especially against the Eagles’ defensive front.
McKinnon's longest rush has stayed under 8.5 yards in 14 of 19 Chiefs games this year, with the most recent long outburst coming back in Week 15 against the lowly Texans defense. I don't expect a repeat performance against Philadelphia.'
This is an interesting one. In looking at some of the internal user betting data here at the BetMGM online sportsbook, I noticed that the touchdown is -200 in this three-way market, but 50% of the tickets in the market are chasing the return that field goal offers at +155.'
Another 40% are looking for a lottery ticket with safety at 30-to-1.'
That leaves only 10% of tickets backing the supposed marketplace favorite, the -200 touchdown option.
I got curious about the market fundamentals, so looked at first score tendencies for both the Chiefs and Eagles. Unsurprisingly, the history is pretty overwhelming in favor of the touchdown.'
The first score was a touchdown in 12 of 19 Chiefs games. The numbers were even more overwhelming (15 of 19) in Eagles games.
This -200 is a big price to lay for a prop, but pure, historically-based true odds would make the touchdown price about -245. That means there's actually pretty decent value on buying the -200 here.
This might seem like a coin-flip sort of prop, but Eagles coach Nick Sirianni overwhelmingly saves his timeouts for two-minute situations late in the half.'