As an NFL enthusiast, I’ve always believed the Thanksgiving holiday marks an important point in the season each year. Typically, it represents the beginning of the stretch run for every NFL campaign. Most teams usually have about five or six games remaining, and for some, it’s time to make their push to the playoffs, while for others, the goals become focused on next season or spoiling an opponent’s shot at the postseason.
It's no secret that certain franchises or coaches can consistently up their games, and vice versa for those that struggle during this time of year. When you think of the league’s top teams over the last decade or so, it’s a good bet that they played some of their best football during the season’s later games.
In this feature NFL piece, I have collected all the data for the current head coaches in the league in regard to their late season, or Post-Thanksgiving Day (PTD, which included Thanksgiving games and beyond) histories. I’ve looked at their performance trends from various angles, including overall, home/road, favorite/underdog, etc. I’ve also detailed their totals results.
After the series of charts illustrating the overall data, I’ve put together a list of 10 top PTD trends you’ll want to keep an eye on the rest of the way, along with some specific matchups in the coming weeks in which they might apply.
We all know, of course, that what happens from here on out will be influenced by plenty of other factors. For instance, what momentum has that team built in recent weeks? How does the schedule shape up for a particular team? Is a team playing theoretical “playoff games” already just trying to stay alive in the hunt for the postseason? Finally, what kind of weather is a team going to endure in its remaining games? As you can see, it's not quite as cut and dry as simply looking at the turn of a calendar. Keep that in mind as you consider how much weight to give this PTD data when handicapping games the rest of the way.
In next week’s feature piece, I will project the rest-of-season schedule based on power ratings. This week’s piece, along with last week’s on NFL rematches should work hand-in-hand with that to get you ready for a profit-filled rest of the season.
One key note, these records and trends ONLY include regular season games.
Overall Results
The following chart shows the overall records of the current head coaches who have logged PTD games. The coaches are sorted in order of ATS percentage success:
In recent years, Buffalo and Green Bay have been two of the league’s best teams, and their home games are played in difficult weather environments, thus it’s not a huge surprise to see Sean McDermott and Matt LaFleur as the only coaches sporting ATS records over 60% in PTD games. For 2022, Buffalo is in good shape to continue this trend, while Green Bay will have to overcome its current woes to do so.
Perhaps even more impressive than the late-season feats of McDermott and LaFleur are the veteran coaches that have built great late-season resumes over longer periods. There are five that have won at least 55% ATS who have coached at least 57 PTD games. That group includes Mike McCarthy, Andy Reid, Ron Rivera, Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh. Those coaches are currently in positions where late-season surges could land playoff spots.
The most discouraging entry on the chart has to be Lovie Smith, whose Texans are again out of the postseason picture in 2022 and don’t figure to improve a lot. Nor do they seem able to play a spoiler role down the stretch if Smith’s recent late-season futility continues. Also, keep an eye on the trend regarding Mike Tomlin’s career late-season record, as his teams have gone under .500 in PTD games in his career, despite an overall run of success.
Interestingly, only 11 of the active 26 head coaches that have logged PTD games in the past have sub-.500 SU & ATS records. Then again, coaches that struggle in late season games typically can’t hang on to their jobs. Those that fare well do.
Overall Totals Results
Here is the data regarding totals for current active head coaches in PTD games:
The totals data on coaches that have gone OVER the total at better than a 60% clip in their PTD games is interesting. Only one of coach, Mike Vrabel, has coached more than eight such contests. Brandon Staley has the most one-sided totals trend of any coach, with his Chargers teams going over the total in six of seven games while averaging 30.6 PPG. Only LaFleur tops Staley in that latter statistic, with his Packers scoring 30.7 PPG. Elsewhere, Bill Belichick’s performance on totals is unusual in that his team has allowed just 17.7 PPG, best in the league of the 26 active PTD-log coaches, yet his teams have gone OVER in 52% of the games.
McDermott leads the list of coaches that have trended UNDER in PTD games with at least 12 games on the resume, with his teams allowing a next-to-best 18 PPG. The most definitive UNDER coach by percentage is Arthur Smith, whose teams have gone UNDER at a 71% rate in seven contests, followed by Dennis Allen at 64%.
Home & Road Results
The home/road performance in PTD games shows some interesting dichotomy breakdowns:
The most interesting trend pattern to be observed when comparing the home and road PTD results chart involves Baltimore Head Coach John Harbaugh. His teams have been spectacular for bettors when playing on the road in late-season games, going 24-11 ATS. However, at home it’s been a struggle to cover the expectations of oddsmakers—20-25 ATS despite a gawdy 33-12 SU record. The Ravens have four road games remaining, starting with a trip to Jacksonville on Sunday.
Bill Belichick’s teams have been very reliable at home in late-season games over the years, notching a 45-26 ATS record, as have Mike McCarthy’s teams, 23-16 ATS, and Pete Carroll’s, 27-19 ATS.
I already detailed Harbaugh’s home struggles, but I should point out that Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals teams have gone just 2-7 ATS as late-season hosts. We’ll see if that changes in 2022, but it certainly doesn’t feel as if a strong season-ending run is coming from that team.
Three head coaches have achieved at least 75% ATS road success in PTD games, although none have coached more than 13 games. Still, the early success of McDermott is noteworthy as his team finds itself in a tight race for the AFC East Division title. The Bills have remaining road games against Detroit on Thursday, then New England, Chicago, and Cincinnati to close out the regular season. Besides McDermott, Harbaugh and Reid have road records that, if extended, could make a huge difference in eventual AFC playoff seeding.