I know what everyone is thinking: Commanders (+1) vs Bears on primetime is punishment for something we did in a past life. The trick is to set your expectations so low and just be grateful we have football to bet on. I'm oddly optimistic that this game will be interesting on Thursday night. Ron Rivera has essentially called out his QB Carson Wentz in the media and RB Brian Robinson should see an increased workload after making his debut. The Bears have been more competitive than I expected outside of the Green Bay loss. Let's look at some player props!
Be sure to check out our full Commanders vs Bears predictions.
Curtis Samuel over 4.5 receptions-109
This line is considerably low for Samuel as the books expect this to be run dominated, low scoring affair. I'm reluctant to buy into that premise. The Washington Football club is 9-2 on TNF since 2010- and first-year head coaches are 1-11 straight up on TNF. I'm expecting the Commanders to have success offensively and Samuel is a big part of that. Samuel has the best matchup of any Washington receiving target in Nickel CB Kyler Gordon. Gordon has given up an 80% reception rate and 5+ targets in 4/5 games. Also, he's allowed long receptions of 44, 55, and 52 yards so far this season to go along with 2 TD's. Samuel has only missed this line once so far and it was off his lowest snap total of year. He still had 7 targets that game. I'd only play this line at 4.5 but shop around for the juice. It's as high as -125 in some cases. TE Logan Thomas should be out again on a short week, so I'm in for 1U.