Is Julius Randle going to drop another 50 burger on Wednesday, or will he be more of a facilitator in the offense? Jon Metler shares two of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Wednesday's games using the latest NBA odds.
Randle was unconscious while scoring 57 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday. Are we going to play the Over on Randle's points prop or are we going to attack his props from a different angle?
We've cashed a same-game parlay in three straight articles, winning 4.72 units. There's nothing in the rules that says we can't make it four straight days, and Wednesday's card is awesome.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Wednesday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Wednesday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Knicks-Heat | Adebayo Over 19.5 points, Randle Over 3.5 assists | +251 |
| 76ers-Bulls | DeRozan 25+ points, Beverley 4+ assists | +404 |
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Knicks vs. Heat odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Knicks vs. Heat
Adebayo just earned us a green checkmark on a straight bet on his points prop on Saturday, and I'm back for more. Adebayo was trading with a total of 18.5 points on Saturday, and though that number has moved to 19.5 for Wednesday, I'm here to tell you that it's still not enough of an adjustment.
As Adebayo is projected to score 21.4 points against the Knicks, the Over 19.5 points should trade at -135 instead of -106. There has already been an increase in juice at BetRivers to -120 on Adebayo's Over 19.5 points and I expect FanDuel to follow suit soon.
Randle had Mike Breen shouting “bang!” in the third quarter on Monday, after dropping 57 points with one assist.
There was a lot of attention paid to this stat line on Monday, and I believe that it's helping you extract some value from Randle's assist prop on Wednesday. There's absolutely no reason why this prop should be trading at Over 3.5 (-120).
Randle is projected to drop 4.4 dimes against the Heat, so we can price this prop at -170. This bet has a positive expected value of 17% based on this projection.
NBA SGP predictions: 76ers vs. Bulls
This pick has nothing to do with the fact that DeRozan scored 25 points against the 76ers on Monday and has everything to do with making sure we receive the best value for our wager.
DeRozan is projected to score 25.2 points again st the 76ers on Wednesday, so we can price this prop at -103 for DeRozan to score 25 or more points. FanDuel's price point of +125 results in a positive expected value of 14% for this bet.
By betting on DeRozan Over 22.5 points (-120) on FanDuel, our expected value drops to 12%. Both are excellent bets, but I prefer to back the one with a greater edge.
One thing you can take away from Monday's Bulls-76ers game is Billy Donovan clearly favors Beverley in the lineup against the 76ers from a matchup perspective. Beverley played 40 minutes before fouling out, and the Bulls won, so Donovan shouldn't be afraid to give him significant minutes on Wednesday.
Beverley is projected to drop 3.6 assists against the 76ers, meaning we can price Beverley at +110 to have four or more assists. As we approach tip-off, I would be shocked if this prop was still tradi ng at +140. I expect it to move.
NBA player prop picks made 03/22/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
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