Will Damian Lillard put on another shooting clinic in Monday's game against the Detroit Pistons? Jon Metler shares four of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Monday's games using the latest NBA odds.
With Lillard averaging 42.2 points per game since the All-Star break, the market has responded to his exceptional level of play. The point total for Lillard is now trading at 37.5 on Monday, which is one of the highest I've ever seen.
The real question is, will we bet Over or Under Lillard's total of 37.5 points on FanDuel?
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Monday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Monday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Trail Blazers-Pistons | Lillard Under 37.5 points/Over 7.5 assists | +276 |
| Hawks-Heat | Young Over 23.5 points, Murray Over 5.5 assists | +266 |
| Raptors-Nuggets | VanVleet Under 20.5 points, Porter Jr. Over 16.5 points | +226 |
| Pelicans-Kings | Ingram Over 27.5 points, McCollum Over 5.5 assists | +217 |
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Pelicans vs. Kings odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Hawks vs. Heat
If Lillard had been projected to go Over this total, I would be all over it because I've never seen a 37.5 – but I think Lillard has been steamed too high here. Lillard opened at Under 35.5 (-108) at FanDuel and is now available at Under 37.5 (-118). The projections for Lillard have him scoring 34.9 points, which was very close to the original total of 35.5 but well below the now adjusted total of 37.5 points.
I don't think Lillard will have a bad game even though I'm playing Under his points total.
His usage rate will still be sky high. The Trai l Blazers ask Lillard to carry their offense night in and night out, and against a bad Pistons team, I think he will try to set up his teammates. Lillard is projected to have 8.1 assists against the Pistons, so we can price the Over 7.5 assists at -120.
NBA SGP predictions: Hawks vs. Heat
Young scored a season-low eight points last time out against the Heat, and I'm going to use that performance to my advantage. The natural reaction would be to take the Under on Young here, but the narrative gives us value on the Over. With Young projected to score 25.4 points, we can price the Over 23.5 points at -135, so at -118, we see a nice edge.
FanDuel's price on Murray's assist prop is far from the most competitive, and I highly suggest placing a straight bet at +125 via DraftKings. Shop around and make this parlay at whatever sportsbook has the highest odds on Murray' ;s prop.
The first place I recommend checking is DraftKings, followed by BetMGM. Murray is projected to drop 6.4 dimes against the Heat, so the Over 5.5 should trade at -155. This bet has a positive expected value of 30% at +114, which is a great edge, but you'll want to maximize the value and find the highest possible odds for Murray Over 5.5.
NBA SGP predictions: Raptors vs. Nuggets
FanDuel is offering the best price on the market for this prop, but I don't anticipate it remaining available for long. The Under 20.5 points is currently trading at -133 on Caesars and -120 on DraftKings, and I believe you'll continue to see this momentum towards the Under throughout the day. It would be surprising if this prop didn't drop to 19.5 points. As VanVleet is projected to score 18.7 points against the Nuggets, the Under 20.5 points should trade closer to -165 than -115.&nb sp;
Porter Jr. is running hot right now, and his points prop has not been adjusted appropriately to account for this. PointsBet has moved its line on Porter from Over 16.5 (-120) to Over 17.5 (-105), which means it now values the Over 16.5 at -135 while we can scoop a -125 at FanDuel. Besides the favorable price point we're seeing at FanDuel, the projections also show Porter going over his points total with 18.1 points.
NBA SGP predictions: Pelicans vs. Kings
When it comes to his scoring, Ingram exhibits extreme “spurtability”, as he can score 17 points one game and 40 the next. I expect Ingram to stuff the stat sheet against the Kings on Monday. With Ingram projected to score 29.2 points against the Kings, we can price this prop at -125.
If our numbers indicate that Ingram will be scoring all the baskets, it only makes sense that we may a lso be seeing some value in McCollum recording over 5.5 assists. I also favor the Under on McCollum's points prop, however, I prefer the Over on assists slightly more. We're laying some steep juice here at -148, but it's justified as McCollum is projected to record 6.5 assists, which means that my price on the Over 5.5 is -165.
NBA player prop picks made 03/06/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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