Is Jimmy Butler going to continue to torture Philadelphia 76ers fans since he joined the Miami Heat? Jon Metler shares three of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Monday's games using the latest NBA odds.
There are only four games scheduled in the NBA on Monday, but there are some very intriguing matchups. Although the New York Knicks hosting the Boston Celtics will grab a lot of attention, nothing will be more enjoyable than watching Butler play in Philadelphia.
Butler crushed the hopes and dreams of 76ers fans when his Heat eliminated Philly from the playoffs last season.
Will Butler be able to produce another strong performance against the 76ers on Monday? There is a strong consensus among the betting markets that this is the case.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Monday (odds via Fa nDuel Sportsbook).
Monday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Heat-76ers | Butler 20+ points, Adebayo Over 8.5 rebounds, Harden Under 10.5 assists | +402 |
| Celtics-Knicks | Smart Over 5.5 assists, Horford Over 2.5 assists, Barrett Under 3.5 rebounds | +757 |
| Magic-Pelicans | Fultz Over 5.5 assists, Suggs Over 2.5 assists, Banchero Over 6.5 rebounds | +673 |
Check out our parlay calculator here!
Celtics vs. Knicks odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Heat vs. 76ers
The former 76er is seeing a lot of steam on his point total, and I'm totally on board, as he loves to torture his old team. Butler opened at Over 21.5 (-111) at FanDuel and is currently trading at Over 22.5 (-113). As a result of this move, we lost some of our edge, but I'm trying to regain some of it by attacking the alternate line of 20 points or more at -220. Butler's projections indicate that this bet has a higher expected value than the Over 22.5 at -113.
There's a new rebounder in town and his name is Kevin Love. Over the past couple of games, Love has been eating int o the number of rebounds Bam Adebayo can grab. We have seen an over-adjustment on Adebayo's prop, which is why I'm looking at the Over at plus money. As Adebayo is projected to grab 9.4 rebounds, this prop should trade at -130 instead of +100.
It was evident in last season's Eastern Conference semifinals that Erik Spoelstra knows how to design a game plan to neutralize James Harden's ability to make plays. With the juice moving from -132 on the opener to -140 at FanDuel, we're seeing support for the Under. We can price this prop at -175, as Harden is only projected to have 9.6 assists on Monday.
NBA SGP predictions: Celtics vs. Knicks
I placed a bet on the Over 5.5 assists at 1 a.m. ET on Monday morning and was able to find a +120 at a different sportsbook. While we have lost some of our edge, it also indicates that we have identified a solid bet. I price this prop at -135, which means you still have a positive expected value of 12% at -106 based on Smart's projections.
As well as having a straight bet on Al Horford's assist prop on Monday, I've also included him in this parlay. Horford and Adebayo have pretty similar projections for their assists on Monday, but for Adebayo, you must lay -158 for Over 2.5, while Horford trades at +124. Horford's assists prop should be adjusted soon, but we'll continue to play the Over until then.
Although I'm a huge projections fan, there are occasionally some lines that appear suspicious. Barrett is projected to have 5.9 rebounds on Monday against the Knicks and his total is 3.5. The first instinct is to bet the Over, but why hasn't the market pushed this prop up to 4.5 yet? There was an opening price of Over 3.5 (-140) and it is now only trading at Over 3.5 (-142). I'll take the Under!
The projections for Fultz show him going over the total of 5.5 assists, and FanDuel offers the best price on this prop across all sportsbooks. Fultz is priced at Over 5.5 (+100) at FanDuel, while at other shops, such as BetMGM, he's priced at Over 5.5 (-115). This prop should be trading at -130 due to Fultz's projection to drop 6.1 dimes against the Pelicans. I've been beating this drum several times lately, losing both times by the hook. That will not deter me from attacking another favorable price point with Suggs at Over 2.5 (+114). It's projected that Suggs will drop 3.2 dimes against the Pelicans, which allows us to price this prop at -150. Banchero is the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, but the NBA season can be a grind for a rookie, and we're now beginning to s ee him fade when it comes to his scoring ability. Even though Banchero's scoring has declined, his rebounding has not, averaging 7.5 boards over his last 10 games. Banchero is projected to grab 7.6 rebounds against the Pelicans, and we're not the only ones interested in this prop, which has moved from Over 6.5 (+100) to Over 6.5 (-122) at FanDuel. NBA player prop picks made 02/27/2023 at 9:30 a.m. ET. (21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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