Is Stephen Curry capable of outdueling Joel Embiid and leading the Golden State Warriors to victory on Friday? Jon Metler shares two of his favorite NBA same-game parlays for Friday's games using the latest NBA odds.
I'm all over Curry's points prop on Friday and you can find one of my straight bets on Curry in our NBA best bets.
It might appear that I'm taking a little more risk on the Warriors guard's points prop in the same-game parlay, but if you take a closer look at the prices available exclusively to FanDuel, it suggests otherwise.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Friday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Friday's NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| 76ers-Warriors | Curry 30+ points, Green Over 6.5 assists | +357 |
| Thunder-Lakers | Davis Over 26.5 points, Reaves Under 21.5 points | +220 |
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76ers vs. Warriors odds
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NBA SGP predictions: 76ers vs. Warriors
I've already bet Curry Over 26.5 points (-120) via BetMGM in our NBA best bets, and while it may appear that I'm taking more of a risk by using Curry for 30-plus points, I'm actually increasing our expected value.
Based on our projection of Curry scoring 28.7 points, we can place a price of +125 on Curry scoring 30-plus points. As Curry is available on FanDuel for +140 to score 30 or more points, this bet has a positive expected value of 7%. In the event that you choose to use Curry's normal FanDuel line of Over 27.5 (-106) your expected value will decrease from 7% to 3.5%.
We have a slight edge on the Over with the points props for Curry and fellow Warriors guards Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole when we compare their projections with their market prices. Whenever the props of all three players trend toward the Over, there's an easy way to capitalize on this. This involves playing the Over on the assists for the player who will be dishing them the ball.
Warriors forward Draymond Green is projected to drop exactly seven dimes against the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday. We shouldn't be getting a plus price on the Over 6.5 assists and the price should be closer to -115. At PointsBet, Green is trading at a shorter price of +100 to go Over the total of 6.5 assists, which emphasizes the value of this price on FanDuel.
NBA SGP predictions: Thunder vs. Lakers
We played Anthony Davis Over 25.5 poi nts on Wednesday and the line has now been adjusted to 26.5 points. Although the prop for the Los Angeles Lakers is trading one point higher against the Oklahoma City Thunder, I still prefer the Over as the adjustment wasn't as significant as it should've been.
We can price the Over 26.5 points at -145 based on Davis' projected score output of 28.8 points against the Thunder. I would lock in this bet early since I fully expect this prop to trade at 27.5 points by the end of the day. You can still use this prop at 27.5 points as long as the juice is -115 or lower.
Lakers guard Austin Reaves is on fire and he'll get paid as a restricted free agent this offseason, but 21.5 points is out of control. Reaves is only projected to score 18.7 points on Friday, so we can price this prop at -210.
While not every sportsbook has released their number on Reaves yet , PointsBet has him at 20.5 points. Even that's too high, but it's a lot more reasonable than FanDuel's 21.5 points. In other words, hit the button!
NBA player prop picks made 3/24/2023 at 8 a.m. ET.
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