Nikola Jokic put on a masterclass in Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals, so what does he have in store for us in Game 4 against the Miami Heat? Read on for our same-game parlay for Friday's Nuggets vs. Heat matchup based on the best NBA odds.
It was just another day at the office for Nikola Jokic in Game 3, as he became the first player in the history of the NBA Finals to record a stat line of 32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists. He led the Denver Nuggets to a resounding 109-94 win over the Miami Heat, taking a 2-1 lead in the series.
Bettors could have won big by backing Jokic, though we earned some cash by playing it safe with our same-game parlay for Game 3. We had a +110 parlay on Jokic to score 25-plus points in a Denver victory that ultimately got home after his legendary performance.
The formula remains the same for Game 4. We are betting on the Nuggets to prevail on the sturdy shoulders of Jokic, though we are comfortable playing it safe with this same-game parlay. If you want a plus-money prop for Friday's matchup, I shared one in my Nuggets vs. Heat preview. Full disclosure: this SGP won't be that.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Friday's Game 4 (odds via DraftKings).
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 NBA SGP picks
| Game | Props | Combined Odds |
| Nuggets vs. Heat | Nikola Jokic to score 20-plus points, record 10-plus rebounds, and Nuggets win Game 4 | -105 |
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Nuggets vs. Heat odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Nuggets vs. Heat
Look, obviously it is no fun to see these type of odds on the first leg. But this same-game parlay is about having action on this NBA Finals matchup with something we truly believe in. You could replace this leg with Jokic to score 25-plus points, which comes at -450 odds and would boost the overall value of the SGP.
We played it safe by taking 20-plus points, as Jokic has scored this much in 17 strai ght games since recording just 13 points in Game 1 of Denver's opening-round matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves. In the playoffs, Jokic has failed to reach 25-plus points on five different occasions.
Projections expect Jokic to score about 29 points in Game 4, while our best sports betting apps have set his points prop at 30.5 and as high as 31.5 at PointsBet. He is averaging 30.5 points per game this postseason, including an average of 33.3 points per contest during the NBA Finals.
Fresh off a 21-rebound performance, we need Jokic to do about half of that with this same-game parlay. He has collected double-digit rebounds in all three games of this series, averaging 14 boards per contest in the NBA Finals.
This postseason, Jokic has collected 10 or more rebounds in 15 of his 18 games and is averaging 13.5 rebounds per contest. His rebounds prop has been set at 13.5 acro ss our best sports betting sites, with projections expecting him to finish with a dozen boards in Game 4.
It is safe to say our same-game parlay likely comes down to Denver winning this game as a 3.5-point road favorite at the best sportsbooks. As a person sitting on a series spread of Nuggets -1.5, I certainly am in favor of them finishing the job by winning these next two games.
I think they do just that. The Nuggets have been the better team this series, winning the battle at the rim and having their role players step up. Christian Braun was the latest example of that, when he scored 15 points off the bench. The Heat are simply running out of answers as the inferior and depleted team.
Maybe Miami shoots above expectations to even the series back up, but I'm comfortable betting against that with this same-game parlay. This exact SGP is priced closer to a fair line of -114 at FanDuel, so take advantage of what DraftKings is offering us here.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
NBA player prop picks made 6/9/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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