We have a full 15-game slate of action on this beautiful Saturday. There are numerous games worth watching and several angles to bet on in each matchup. Today’s prop article will focus on my 2 favorite prop bets for today. Let’s dive in!
Houston Astros first 5 innings team total Over 2.5 (+105)
Bryse Wilson was a solid reliever for the Milwaukee Brewers last season, posting a 2.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 76.2 innings of work, spanning 53 relief appearances. The right-hander began this season as a reliever again but has since made 5 starts as the Brewers lack rotational depth. While Wilson was fine as a reliever last season, a starting role is one where he has struggled in the past. Wilson was a member of the Pirates in both 2021 and 2022, starting in 28 of his 33 appearances with the club. As a Pirates fan I had the displeasure of watching several of those outings, as a lack of strikeout abilities and a propensity to allow hard contact made for consistently hard watches — and his metrics were poor across the board in a starting role.
In both 2021 and 2022 Wilson’s ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP were all above 5.00. His 2022 season resulted in a league-worst xBA and an 11th percentile hard-hit rate. He is a low strikeout rate arm who generally pounds the zone with strikes, but this season his walk rate has jumped into the double digits at 10.9%. His 44.0% hard-hit rate sits 21st percentile and now he draws a Houston lineup that is in good form offensively. The Astros enter this game having cleared this 2.5 mark within the first 5 innings against each of the last 4 right-handed starters they have faced. That includes Freddy Peralta, who allowed 5 earned runs in their last opportunity yesterday.
While Wilson has produced a 2.65 ERA through his first 34.0 innings of work this season, his underlying metrics are far more concerning. A 4.82 xERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.72 xFIP and 4.50 SIERA are all not likely more accurate representations of his production level moving forward; I expect his regression to begin here in a tough matchup. There is simply no way he can sustain a .207 BABIP or 90.9% LOB%. The Astros’ offense is good to begin with, but they have consistently been better at home over the course of several seasons. When facing right-handed pitching at home this season the Astros rank 5th in wOBA with a 121 wRC+. When isolating their production against right-handers at home within the first 5 innings they rank 6th in wOBA with a 128 wRC+. Wilson has an outs recorded line of 15.5 with slight juice towards the under, and a 2.5 earned runs prop with heavy juice toward the over. Getting the Astros first 5 innings team total at plus money for 2.5 is value in my eyes.