Best MLB prop bets for today 8/28: Brayan Bello loses control

Brayan Bello (BOS) over 1.5 walks allowed (-139)

Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello has seen a slippage in his command of the strike zone this season and is currently in the midst of his worst stretch in that department. Bello flashed solid command last season delivering a 6.7% walk rate that ranked 76th percentile among all MLB pitchers. This season that rate has spiked to 9.0%, however, ranking him 34th percentile and falling. He has made 24 starts on the year with 2 or more walks issued in 18 trips to the mound, including each of his last 6 starts. His last 4 starts have resulted in 3, 3, 3, and 4 walks allowed, and Bello has walked 3 or more in 9 of his starts this season. This includes his only start of the season against today’s opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto is not necessarily a matchup where I hunt walk props, but they are a middle of the pack BB% team and have several patient pieces of their lineup. The top 5 of the projected batting order each sports a walk rate of 8.4% or higher against right-handed pitching, and with their familiarity against Bello that should continue today. Among the last 18 right-handed starting pitchers to face Toronto, 11 of them have issued 2 or more free passes including 5 of their last 6 chances. This play is more about Bello than anything, however, as he is walking batters regardless of opponent. Bello is throwing less pitches inside the zone this season and his overall strike rate sits 32nd lowest among 112 qualified pitchers. His last 4 starts have seen a drastic decrease in his zone rate including his outing against Texas where just 35.6% of his pitches were in the zone. Bello can benefit from drawing chases but is still not throwing enough strikes for this price to make sense.