Yesterday’s article went 1-1 as both Lucas Giolito and Jesus Luzardo pitched well, but Giolito’s 100 pitch workload helped him allow the 5th hit we needed. Today’s article will look to get back in the winning ways with the 3 bets that stood out to me this morning. As always, there are also numerous other entertaining games to check out, and with 16 games on tap thanks to a doubleheader in Anaheim, MLB fans should have plenty of ba seball to enjoy. Let’s dive in!
Seattle Mariners ML / Michael Kopech 2+ walks allowed (-120)
I don’t think Michael Kopech has been healthy for the majority of his career, yet the Chicago White Sox insist he is by rolling him out every 5 or 6 days for another start. The ultra-talented flamethrower has never had a complete grasp of the strike zone, and his walk rate has ballooned year over year. His league average 8.4% BB% in 2021 jumped to 11.5% last season, a number that ranked him in the 8th percentile. This season his BB% sits at 14.5% which ranks 3rd percentile and ranks as the highest mark among pitchers with 110 or more innings pitched. Among that list his percentage of in-zone pitches ranks 12th worst, and among those 12 worst rates his chase rate is 2.4% lower than the next closest name. His 58.8% strike rate as a whole ranks him 2nd worst behind Blake Snell, and he lets batters get ahead in 3-0 counts 7.7% of the time, the highest rate in the sport.
Kopech’s last 10 games have resulted in a 20.6% BB% and 15.3% K%. Batters are swinging just 39.3% of the time while chasing just 22.7% of the time. His 10 starts have resulted in 6, 3, 7, 4, 4, 1, 5, 4, 5, and 4 walks, eclipsing this mark 9 times. The first game in that stretch was against these Mariners, as Kopech walked 6 batters in 4.1 innings. The Mariners have employed a patient approach throughout this series, drawing 4 walks against both Mike Clevinger and Touki Toussaint. On the season against right-handed pitching the Mariners have the 10th highest BB% at 9.0%, and there are numerous batters willing to take ball 4 in the order including J.P. Crawford and Eugenio Suarez batting 1st and 3rd. Cal Raleigh gets the day off, but sandwiched between Crawford and Suarez is Julio Rodriguez who returns from an illness that held him out for 2 games. His historic stretch earlier this month can’t be expected to continue, but his presence and production in the order is certa inly welcome.