Saturday’s MLB slate is the largest of all season with Hurricane Hilary changing the weekend schedule. Three games scheduled for tomorrow have been moved to today as part of a doubleheader, and as a result today’s schedule includes 18 games to enjoy. MLB fans will have plenty to dig into, including my favorite bet of the day below. Let’s discuss!
Chicago Cubs ML + team total over 3.5 runs (-135)
There were many ways I contemplated playing the Chicago Cubs today, but this correlated pairing is my favorite. The Chicago Cubs have won 19 of their last 28 games played and held on to key pieces at the trade deadline instead of selling off. That includes Cody Bellinger who has rebounded wonderfully after a few down seasons and put together a season that will surely get him paid this offseason. Bellinger is among a number of Cubs batters seeing the ball well lately. In fact, over the last 30 days the Cubs rank 2nd in both wOBA and SLG while posting a 136 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Those marks trail only the Braves who are otherworldly, and I expect the Cubs batters to continue their ways today in their matchup against the Kansas City Royals.
Brady Singer will get his 25th start of the season for the Royals, and despite performing a bit better of late he has had an underwhelming season. His struggles have been most apparent when away from his pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium dimensions, as the right-hander has allowed a 6.52 ERA in his 49.2 road innings this season. His road ERA last season was also 1.23 runs higher than at home, showing that this is not a small sample size issue. Singer is primarily a 2-pitch pitcher, relying heavily on his sinker and slider combination, while rarely sprinkling in changeups to left-handed batters. His sinker usage sits over 51% and the Cubs in the last 30 days rank 1st in wOBA against right-handed sinkers. After a .244 xBA and .309 xwOBA allowed against that offering last season, Singer’s opponents have a .292 xBA and .368 xwOBA against it this year. The Cubs also rank 3rd in batting average and 8th in wOBA against right-handed sliders in the last 30 days.