Best MLB prop bets for today 7/31: Phillies score early, Taj strikes out 7
Best MLB prop bets for today 7/31: Phillies score early, Taj strikes out 7

The trade deadline is over and certain roster have changed rather significantly. This, combined with the recent all-star break will continue to make season-long numbers less important as the season goes on. It will be important to keep an eye out for how roster changes can open up betting opportunities for the remainder of the season. As for today, there are 14 games including 6 that feature winning records on both sides. Let’s take a look at my 2 favorite prop bets for today’s slate!

Philadelphia Phillies first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.

There was speculation at the trade deadline that Nestor Cortes could end up on a new team, but the southpaw remains with New York to make his 23rd start of the season today. Nestor has been a fan favorite during large stretches of his time with the Yankees, but his numbers away from his home park this year are pretty hard to love. That is unless you are betting against him in those road starts which has been a very profitable angle for bettors this season. Cortes has posted a 6.18 ERA in 55.1 innings away from New York this season. He has allowed a .313 AVG, 34 XBH, and 17 BB in those innings compared to just a .207 AVG, 17 XBH, and 9 BB in 69 innings at home. Nearly all of his underlying metrics take a hit when away from his home park, and today’s matchup is as tough as he has seen this season.

The Phillies haven't seen a ton of lefties lately, facing just 8 southpaw starters during the month of July, but during that sample they have posted the 4th best wOBA and a 139 wRC+. On the year they rank 1st in wOBA with a 119 wRC+ and in theory they should become even more lethal with the addition of Austin Hays at the trade deadline. Hays has been a lefty masher throughout his career with a 117 wRC+ against left-handers, and that production has continued this season with a 143 wRC+ in a brief 72 PA sample. Having been traded from the AL East, Hays has the most experience head-to-head against Cortes, facing him 22 times in the past. While he hasn’t crushed in that sample, his presence will help extend this Phillies lineup and eliminate what has been a weak spot for them this season.

  
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