Saturday’s slate of MLB action is an intriguing one with several tantalizing starting pitching matchups on tap. There are plenty of angles worth looking into, but this article will highlight my favorite two bets for today’s games. Let’s dive in!
Texas Rangers first 7 innings team total over 2.5 (-110)
Kevin Gausman has been struggling in his home ballpark this season. The veteran right-hander has tossed 53 innings across his 10 home outings this season, posting a putrid 6.96 ERA with extremely poor underlying metrics. His home ERA is so large due to allowing 3 or more earned runs in each of his last 7 home starts. This includes 4 runs within 6.2 innings against a mediocre Tigers lineup in his first start since the all-star break. Gausman has seen significant decreases in his whiff rate this season, while also losing some velocity on his 4-seam fastball. That fastball has been getting knocked around this year and his lack of success with that offering puts more pressure on locating his splitter.
Today Gausman will face a Texas Rangers lineup that is seemingly rounding into form. In the month of July against right-handed pitching Texas ranks 10th in hard-hit rate, 8th in BB%, 10th in K%, and have a 102 wRC+. Those numbers may not blow you away, but they have an extensive history against Gausman with 117 combined plate appearances from active Ranger bats against the right-hander all time. In that sample they are hitting .288 with an .887 OPS, and this season they have been very good against right-handed splitters. Against that offering this season Texas sits 6th in hard-hit rate and 3rd in wOBA.